It Would Be Nice to Move to Dubai

In the middle of last week, Dubai World, the wholly-owned investment conglomerate of the Dubai government requested a six month forbearance on its loan payments. In debt for the paltry sum of some $56,000,000,000, Dubai World's request was enough to rack investor confidence causing stock markets to tank worldwide. Investors were reminded once again that the financial peace that has been struck worldwide is still very unstable.

The way things are going here in America certainly gets one to thinking about moving out. And, the best place to move to is a place of established ruin, especially where everything is new and entry costs are significantly reduced. I'm thinking it would be nice to move to Dubai. All of the pictures of Dubai look great and I like the heat. The sheer engineering marvels that have been constructed there, the Burj Dubai, the manmade islands, the indoor ski mountain (in the middle of the desert) all seem pretty marvelous. Over the last five years, there were increasingly more fancy pictures in the real estate magazines as Dubai launched its huge pitch to attract the wealthy. Even Michael Jackson moved there for a while. But now with the overbuilding and the empire on the verge of debt's door, real estate prices have collapsed and us little people might be able to afford something there.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been a facinating outpost in the Middle East, successfully transferring oil wealth into a new Arab capitalist empire. Dubai is one of the seven emirates, nation-states, that is part of the UAE. When it's oil reserves ran low years ago, it sought to remake itself as a financial capital of the middle east in a similar vein to Hong Kong. And so it borrowed and borrowed to build this financial kingdom, much like the US and a multitude of other nations during the aughts when money was cheap and debt-fueled consumption was all the rage.

All of the institutional investors - the major banks that we have to come to know so well - assumed that Dubai World's debt was guaranteed by the government or at least by Abu Dhabi, it's oil rich neighbor. Except, the Dubai government has refused to bail out Dubai World and Abu Dhabi also refuses to guarantee its debt. Nobody wants to help Dubai because it went out on a drunken spending spree this last decade. Unsound familiar? Faced with the same situation, America did the opposite.

We may be angry about the bailouts to our banks and other major institutions because those institutions have, in turn, completely and unapologetically treated us all like garbage. And, Wall Street is "fat" again while the average person sinks into poverty. But, we should consider that if the paltry debt payments of a tiny nation-state can reek so much financial trouble, imagine how the world would have reacted if America had said no to its spendthrift institutions and allowed for even the perception of failure. I certainly don't think I could be sitting here imagining moving to Dubai. Yes, the whole financial market system stinks worldwide but it is not because of the wealth, it is because of the moral bankruptcy that has increasingly accompanied that wealth.

Happy Thanksgiving - A Week Early

Thanksgiving is an American Holiday. Families get together to enjoy a traditional meal that includes Turkey and all the trimmings or some modern variation thereof. I suppose Thanksgiving is a celebration of food ultimately for Thanksgiving is described in the history books as a feast in celebration of the Pilgrims' first harvest which would not have been possible without a major assist from the Native Americans. There is no actual table-side celebration that incorporates this history or much mention of history when we leave the football game, the kitchen or whatever we are doing to actually sit down and eat.

So what is the true meaning of Thanksgiving for us? Some will say it is a time for family and friends to celebrate together. But, Christmas, Hannukah, Kwanzaa, and other winter holidays are upcoming within the month and there is usually a meal just as large as Thanksgiving but this time accompanied by presents. Some will say it is a time to give thanks that we are fortunate to be able to partake of a large quantity of food. To this end, my family makes a donation to a food pantry to provide a Thanksgiving meal to a family in need.

In a new twist this year, my family has instituted Thanksgiving creep and we are having our meal Wednesday evening to accommodate everyone's Thursday schedule. Many of us who are married do two Thanksgivings in order to incorporate both sides of the family. For those who live in the NY Metro area, there is the Thanksgiving parade to attend and a myriad of other activies. I'm hoping we keep creeping until we reach back to September when I think it is a great time to do it. Of course I am just fussing because my household also celebrates three birthdays in Novmber so by the time Thanksgiving rolls around, we are festived out and then we have start up immediately for Christmas.

So, because I just got a little older and in order to survive this year, now that I have less energy than I had last year, I am saying Happy Thanksgiving a week early because with the influx of friends and family beginning on Monday, I'll essentially be a goner. Therefore I will not be posting next week. Thankfully, my audience is still very very small and I'm sure they can entertain themselves, feel happier even without my whining. Happy Thanksgiving - a week early!

Bowing is Customary and Necessary

There has been much furor over President Obama's visit to Asia, in particular his deep bow before the Japanese emperor. Sometimes you have to bow when you travel to Asia to thank them for continuing to buy much of our debt. What else is this diplomatic mission for anyway? We are borrowing like fiends to save the country and China and Japan own close to 50% of that debt.

Throughout this economic crisis, economists have continually compared America to Japan. Japan's lost decade and prolonged recession are held up as an example for why we needed more government stimulus; the claim is that Japan's government did not invest enough internally to prop up the country and avert a deep recession. So the logic has been that we must do the opposite and so we are plowing in trillions to save ourselves. But, we should be frightfully aware of the difference, they own nearly a quarter of our debt so they are still solvent.

China is considered the successor to our throne and not only are they weathering this global recession well, they own nearly a quarter of our debt also. We must keep in mind that neither of these countries is spending a third of their budget on their military and another third on entitlements like Social Security and Medicare. Hello! Obama had better follow cultural custom and bow, in fact, he technically needs to get down on his knees.

Only in America do we think that we are all that and a bag of chips and rightly so for up until the last few years, we were the envy of the rest of the world. However, due t0 our most recent and disastrous foreign policy, we absolutely need to fix our mystique, something that Obama has nearly accomplished in less than a year. But, people over here have forgotten why that is important, they still think that America is the center of the Universe. I'm sure the people of Rome felt that way too before it fell.

I don't think the end of the world is around the corner, history unfolds much more slowly than it seems. All of the empires that previously fell like the Ottoman, Roman & British are still thriving. They are not number one but they are quite robust. America is not falling tomorrow, it may be in decline but it will still take a while. And while we may lose #1 status, we will remain close behind and may even reclaim it. America has iron balls and vast wealth and the combination thereof may, in fact, save it.

Eeny Meeny Miny Moe: Public vs. Private Employment

Today the New York Times reported on the recent spike in applicants to the New York City Police Department. The cast offs from a shrinking private sector are trying to get their foot into the shrinking public sector. Unfortunately, due to municipal budget constraints, the NYPD is currently trying to shrink through attrition and they are hiring very few new recruits. But, the prospect of a job with a starting salary in the low forties that can pay in the nineties after five years and still carries a pension after 20 years of service looks very good when you are coming from the private sector.

A steady paycheck and job security are very enticing especially when you have been slapped around by layoffs and a diminishing paycheck. Even I am warming up to the prospect of working in the public sector. My only concern is the shrinking tax revenues and the fact that little has been done here in NY to curb spending in the public sector. Those budget cuts are inevitable but continue to be delayed through budgetary sleight of hand or the leveling of new fees and indirect taxes.

Despite the economic reality, it is political suicide in NY for politicians to push for budget cuts that involve cutting personnel; the unions do not take kindly to these types of suggestions. But, I think the economics will eventually trump the protection enjoyed by public sector workers and the new hires will suffer the brunt of any cutbanks. I fear that will be my fate should I be fortunate to get on board but right now employment in the private sector offers nothing but uncertainty as well. Eeny meeny miny moe.

Where is the Substance?

Where is the substance and when are we going to get it back? I am tired of the political drama swirling around us. Can we get down to the business of serious solutions? I am tired of the Republicans being the party of no and I'm tired of the Democrats fixing the economy with a subsidy to everyone. We have real problems to solve but instead all we get from the cable news channels these days is negativity and bickering depending on their political leaning. Cable news channels, if they ever did, no longer report the news impartially, they preach to their respective choirs. Conservatives go to Fox, Liberals go to MSNBC and the rest go to CNN which is dead last in the ratings right now.

While we are glowingly covering all the knock down drag fights between the political parties and soaking up each morsel of their infighting, nothing is being done in government except what is dictated by the lobbyists and campaign contributors. The elected officials are just pawns in the giant game of whose money speaks loudest and catering to those monies in the hopes that it secures their re-election. Apparently being an elected official is so downright fantastic that once a person is in, their sole purpose in life is to sustain their tenure.

Americans love drama but they don't realize that the drama that we are witnessing is very destructive. We arbitrarily blame incumbents for issues not of their making and elect contenders who have no real strategy to improve the status quo. We throw out Democrats for trying to help too many and elect Republicans who want to help no one but themselves. Back and forth like a yo-yo while the country continues to sink.

We are quickly throwing Republicans back into office forgetting the destruction created under eight years of Bush and yet the Democrats are only in power because of the destruction created under eight years of Bush. We show our disgust by not showing up for elections while we expend our troops and billions of dollars to guarantee the elections of other nations. We are so far off from what we can accomplish as a country, it is a shame. We need to stop treating our politics like a reality show and start demanding some substance.

Job Creation in Suffolk County Still Lagging

Finally, a second classmate from my professional certification program has found employment. Twelve more to go. In these troubling times, the employment process is very hard and very slow. She, like the first, had to meet with an extraordinary amount of people within the organization, eleven in her case, in order to gain admittance. This is a woman of extraordinary savvy with almost two decades of experience in the technology realm and she more than deserved the opportunity. But, she had to commute to Manhattan to get it after working locally for the past 15 years. (The first classmate accepted an opportunity in Nassau County.)

Even though there are signs that there is some easing in the job market, job creation in Suffolk County is still lagging. Marquee companies like CA are still laying off and others like Motorola (formerly Symbol) and Nortel Networks are hanging by a thread. The rest simply have hiring freezes in place. Even the County itself has implemented a hiring freeze. But most importantly, many worthy development projects have completely stalled; the type of projects that could bring good jobs to the region, improve tourism and create affordable housing. The County needs to step up its efforts to remove the obstacles to growth, now more than ever.

Rethinking the Work-Life Balance

Can both of the parents of two grade school children, who reside in mid-Suffolk County, commute to New York City or its environs, up to a 2 hour commute each way, when they have no network of support, neither relatives nor close friends in the vicinity who can help manage the children as early as 6:15am and as late as 8pm?

There is much to consider. Unfortunately, a non-income-generating wife is not an option for them at this time. The husband currently commutes to the city and the wife worked locally until she was laid off. Given the current economy and availability of jobs in her field, the pendulum is swinging toward a hefty commute for her as well, considering the interest she is receiving from prospective employers, in New Jersey, New York City and western Nassau County.

Yes, there are plenty of dual parent working households but a support system is necessary in order to succeed. Yes there are nannies and they seem to work well for families residing in New York City where there is proximity and public transportation to help a non-family member shuttle the children to their requisite activities.

The suburbs require a vehicle, a whole extra layer of complication when it comes to safety and insurance. Also, the cost of the nanny together with the $600 a month in transportation costs (commuter rail, subway and gas) and the negative cost of seeing the children very little during the week would eliminate much of the benefit of the additional salary.

The reality is that both parents working in the city or very close to it would require a significant move to reduce the commute and childcare costs. It would be a major disruption in the lives of the children and would it truly be worth it now that they are established members of the community? The benefit of moving would be that the children could be dropped off at school on the way to work (at a reasonable hour) and the abundant choices of after-school care could be utilized (widely available til 6pm).

The savings on childcare and transportation costs would definitely improve the family finances. However the cost of housing in or near the city may undo all of the savings. Also, could they (or anyone for that matter) sell their house for a reasonable amount in this real estate market to facilitate such an option?

Job desperation will make one attempt the impossible when it comes to work-life balance; it invariably means throwing one's life out of balance when the getting to and from work takes precedence. But without work, what about the dollars required to fund life? Well, this is my life and these are the questions that are swirling while my job clock is ticking. And nothing could save me but a miracle job in Suffolk County. Is there anybody out there? Can I get a witness?

Washington to the Rescue

With the jobless rate at alarming levels, 10.2% officially but depending upon who you consult unofficially, it is upwards of 20% when the under-employed and discouraged workers are included, the Keynesian economists and others are advocating that Washington spend more to create jobs. Recently the Obama Administration claimed that the stimulus has saved or created 640,00 jobs but unfortunately this falls far short of the numbers required.

Now that the banks are saved and the economy is stabilizing, the private sector has failed to create any jobs as expected. In fact, there has been a net loss in private sector jobs this decade so I don't know what Washington was expecting when they set out to save them. Instead, companies are continually cutting payroll to balance out their bottom line. So, if Corporate America cannot or will not create jobs, the belief is that the government should step in to remedy the situation. Besides, the Democrats have a stake in getting people back to work else their dominance of Congress and the Presidency may likely evaporate as the populace becomes more disgusted.

Meanwhile the government, in the face of declining tax revenues, has ratcheted up its ever burgeoning debt in its efforts to save the economy, save the banks, save current homeowners and encourage future ones among other stimulus efforts. Yet, despite the backlash against continued government spending, given the massive $12,000,000,000,000 debt and the $1,400,000,000,000 annual deficit, the government is being urged to spend more on job creation a la FDR's work programs during the Great Depression. Theoretically, the government could have spent more money on job creation and less on cash for clunkers and homeowner tax credits. After all, if jobs are created people will naturally have money to spend instead of enticing them with perceived "savings."

But there is more to consider when it comes to job creation. I came across a statistic recently that 58% of Americans receive some form of income from the government - public sectors workers, social security & pensions recipients, members of the military and military contractors and so on. Corporations are telling us that cutting costs is the only way to balance the books when revenue falls. If so much of our tax dollars are going back into paying ourselves, how can the government ever balance its books?

And Still They Rise

Today the stock market rallied again, 204 points to close at 10,227. I shake my head. Unemployment is 10.2%, a rate that they said we would reach next year, its already here. As the unemployment rate rises, so does the market. Layoffs make a company's bottom line look good, the type of numbers that makes Wall Street happy but steadily erodes optimism on the part of the jobseeker. I know for a fact that Verizon and AT&T are laying off thousands even though it is not big news. Also today, Sprint Nextel announced 2500 layoffs and Electronic Arts announced 1500.

The layoffs are happening at an alarming pace though they are for the moment under the radar. They aren't showing up in the news much but they are showing up in the unemployment data. In response, Congress extended unemployment benefits for a 4th time. But, in New York, the benefits will go to those who've been out since 2008. Most of us who started drawing benefits this spring have been left out of these extensions so far. I've got til the end of this year so I remain vigilant in my search. I have an interview tomorrow and the commute will be a hardship but beggars can't be choosers, can they?

Dow Rally Ignores Reality of Jobless Data

The Dow rose 204 points today closing above 10,000 again on news that jobless claims fell by 20,000 to 512,000 and some people shopped a little. How is this a good sign? Since the data takes into account only those who are active on the rolls, the fact that unemployment benefits expire for 7,000 people each day and others have simply given up the search is tragically overlooked.

With regards to giving up the search, it is tempting to give up especially with all of the hours spent upon the task falling into a black hole. So much time and effort and absolutely nothing to show for it. Nevertheless, since you have to be in it to win it, jobseekers must soldier on. Sadly, the government is expected to announce tomorrow that the official jobless rate has risen to 9.9%.

Even though we have been told countless times that the unemployment rate will continue to climb through next year topping 10%, the record rise in the Dow, 4500 points in 8 months, and the bountiful bonuses on Wall Street juxtaposes badly. For Wall Street, a small drop in initial jobless claims, even though new claims have topped 500,000 on a weekly basis for the last year, is good news. For the most of us, cognitive dissonance abounds.

Fistfuls of Candy

Five days past Halloween and the reality sinks in, the amount of candy laying around the house is treacherous. When you really think about it, the whole Halloween process is kind of strange. After teaching children the cardinal rule of not accepting candy from strangers, we dedicate a whole day, replete with costumes, occult themes and the celebration of the undead, to collecting as much candy as possible, from strangers.

The amount of candy that the children brought home was unwieldy, the festivities and "safe" activities were plentiful and most of it took place in the middle of the afternoon thanks to Halloween being on the weekend this year. It had been years since it was on the weekend and there was much deliberation about when was the best time to go out trick or treating.

We expected "trick or treaters" all day but unfortunately there were not that many on our street. We realized that most of the children had aged out and there are only a handful of Halloween-ready young ones left. Nevertheless, I love trick or treating on my street because it is my opportunity to catch up with the neighbors before we all become shut-ins for the winter.

My brother does not celebrate Halloween and I have met others who don't either. My husband thinks the whole thing is overwrought and I do to a certain extent. When we were growing up, there was not that much emphasis on Halloween, there weren't thousands of costumes to choose from or hundreds of retailers plying their Halloween wares. And tales of tainted candy and razorblades found in apples were urban legend. There simply was not that much selection of candy or sweets that were individually wrapped and what was available was expensive.

Anyhow, back to present day. The bowls of candy beckon and we are faced with the reality that we cannot eat it all else we'll rot our teeth or gain weight. So what is the point of all the candy collecting anyway when no part of it is truly good for us at all.

Another Election Day: Another Round of False Promises

Republican candidates have won in New Jersey and Virginia signaling to the GOP that the tide has turned; Americans are done with President Obama and the Democrats and the Republicans will return home to roost. Since all politics is local, I doubt Obama is really much of a factor in these races but in those where Democrats lost this evening, the Republicans will cheer these victories as a resurgence.

From the looks of it, 2010 will be daunting for many of the newly elected, especially those who are untested. In the last decade, politicians have not had to really fix much, they merely needed to promise that they would reduce taxes and cut spending to be elected. But mostly popularity was the order of the day as both taxes and spending increased monumentally. With the aura of rising prosperity, we ignored that the mountaintop that we were joyfully standing upon was a solid mass of debt and so did our governments and municipalities.

Now that the economy has crashed, we want everything fixed right away but we don't want to cut any spending even though we want lower taxes. Sadly, the most beneficial spending cut is a reduction in personnel just like every major corporation has already done to balance the bottom line. However, few of these government workers/voters recognize that they comprise a major cost center of the budget and they have no plans to vote themselves out. Any one seeking office promises the spending cuts but they are difficult to attain. I wish them all luck.

The Republican Party Should Just Split Already: Part Two

Back in my July 8 post, The Republican Party Should Just Split Already, I suggested that the Republican Party should split in two because it was fairly obvious that "the conservatism that is supposed to define the current Republican Party has different meanings to different people. Fiscal conservatives may have nothing in common with religious conservatives other than the term conservative" and it has become increasingly clear that the two groups have differing agendas. I concluded that "The Republicans should get on it with it but first they would have to decide who keeps the Republican Party name and who becomes the newly chartered Conservative Party, a fine name I believe."

Well, it looks like the Conservative Party is taking shape as witnessed by the battle in NY's 23rd district between the "Conservative" (Republican) candidate, Doug Hoffman and the "Republican" candidate, Dede Scozzafava. Sarah Palin and Dick Armey have jumped in on the side of Hoffman, soundly criticizing Scozzafava, the GOP sanctioned candidate, as not being conservative enough, and have expedited an armload of outlander cash Hoffman's way. In this fairly unremarkable district that has been solidly Republican since the 1800s, the schism within the Republican party took center stage. Scozzafava decided to drop out before tomorrow's vote due to a big slide in her poll numbers but she did something remarkable and endorsed the Democratic candidate, Bill Owens, clearly demonstrating that the schism is widening.

Since Reagan, when I first became cognitively aware of the party politics, it never seemed right to me that religious conservatives from the heartland and corporate Republicans shared the same party. Somehow they managed to keep this all cobbled together until last year when the base of the base whipped up by Palin, Joe the Plumber and the like could no longer go unnoticed by the big money folks on K Street and Wall Street. I don't know how much longer they indeed to sit on the fence and watch the gutting of the Party.

I'm sure there is plenty more to come whatever the outcome tomorrow. But the Peter Principle lurks and one of these narrow-minded hypocrites could make a serious run for President. This is, after all, America.