Dow Rally Ignores Reality of Jobless Data

The Dow rose 204 points today closing above 10,000 again on news that jobless claims fell by 20,000 to 512,000 and some people shopped a little. How is this a good sign? Since the data takes into account only those who are active on the rolls, the fact that unemployment benefits expire for 7,000 people each day and others have simply given up the search is tragically overlooked.

With regards to giving up the search, it is tempting to give up especially with all of the hours spent upon the task falling into a black hole. So much time and effort and absolutely nothing to show for it. Nevertheless, since you have to be in it to win it, jobseekers must soldier on. Sadly, the government is expected to announce tomorrow that the official jobless rate has risen to 9.9%.

Even though we have been told countless times that the unemployment rate will continue to climb through next year topping 10%, the record rise in the Dow, 4500 points in 8 months, and the bountiful bonuses on Wall Street juxtaposes badly. For Wall Street, a small drop in initial jobless claims, even though new claims have topped 500,000 on a weekly basis for the last year, is good news. For the most of us, cognitive dissonance abounds.