Time

This morning my 6 year old looked at the calendar and stated, "it's February 26, yeah, only 2 more days til the end of February." I was wondering what all of the excitement was about but before I could ask, the child suddenly stopped and blurted, "wow, February went by fast!" I was surprised to hear a 6 year old make such an observation for this certainly seemed true. As I look around at the leftover Valentine candy, has it really been 2 weeks already? Where did the time go? Well, time does fly when you are having fun and it can take a dreadfully long time when you are not. We are not having fun, why is it flying?

If you believe in the Bible, one of the harbingers of end times is that time speeds up, days rapidly turn into nights and so on. The new end times schedule is 12.21.12, the winter solstice, three years hence, when the Mayan calendar predicts the current era will end. Some interpret this to mean that the world will end. Others believe it just means the current astrological cycle that we are in is over and civilization will then been governed by the next astrological sign for how many thousands of years and so on. Many early civilizations that did mathematical calculations studied astrology which was the springboard for their well-documented numerical observations so I think the astrological cycle definitions seems most likely. Nevertheless, the drama of the end days is always percolating.

Time is going to keep ticking regardless of what we choose to do with it so the logic is that we should do something useful with it. No matter how long it takes to accomplish a task, if it is a useful task, it will come to a close, there is a light at the end of the tunnel to look forward to. It doesn't matter how long it takes to get a new degree or whether you will be 50 when you complete it, you should go for it if that is really what you want to do. Then when you are 50 you will be exactly where you want to be and better off for having followed your dream.

It has been almost 3 months since I was laid off. Unemployment does makes you take stock of time. You do not want to be perceived as being lazy while your spouse or partner is now working harder than ever to preserve their job otherwise your family finances are kaput. Yet, you realize that if you were a salaried worker, New York State weekly unemployment benefits of $405 are the equivalent of working $12/hr full-time, before taxes (of course you have to pay taxes on those benefits down the road further eroding the actual hourly figure). Why should anyone go back to work for anything less than $12/hr in NY unless you are above this break-even point?

This is why, I think in addition to extended unemployment benefits, the government should keep people busy by giving them productivity credits when they volunteer or give back to the community. These credits can be redeemed for either tax credits, a tax-free income reward based on number of credits earned or be converted into extra weeks of unemployment benefits. This way there would be a free and willing workforce who could accomplish so much in our communities. We have the time and the government is giving us the money anyway. Why not get back something in return and pass on these values to the next generation?

Now What?

The stimulus has passed, the President has spoken, things will be good, bad and indifferent, some things will change for the worse, some things may change for the better but whatever the case, it is going to be a long and hard road. 2009 will be a very long year as most of us struggle to keep our heads above water while more people and businesses fail around us. Driving down the street, we witness yet another home or business has been added to the for sale pile, another home has been added to the foreclosure pile and another store has gone out of business.

The reality is that we do need things to reset, many things about this particular economy are bloated; developers overdeveloped, builders overbuilt, and many companies over-expanded. Economic contraction is difficult and the economy has to shed this oversupply of goods and services to get back in line with demand. But, economic contraction is a very psychologically draining event. It puts us all at odds with each other.

It does not seem fair that many of the people who bought a house they could not afford and are now on the verge of foreclosure will be given economic assistance to help them afford/retain the house especially when the prudent majority conducted themselves as good citizens; purchasing a home within their means and being satisfied with what they could afford. Now the irresponsible buyer, who makes less money than you gets a leg up to keep their Mcmansion - twice the size of yours. It does really suck but yet it has to be done in order to save some geographical areas from economic calamity and by extension be good for the economy and the country.

Of course, the biggest and most irresponsible acts were carried out by the financial institutions. Again, as the Treasury, the Fed and the Congress pour trillions of dollars into these institutions to save them and we watch the collateral damage on the entire world's financial markets unfold where whole countries are going bankrupt as a result, the upper echelon of these institutions still get to collect billions in compensation and bonuses that we could only summon in our financial dreams. It is definitely not right that after all that cash, things are still pretty bleak; the banks are still not lending, they have reduced credit lines to consumers and businesses and the venerable Citigroup is still on daily meltdown watch.

How is one supposed to exude magnanimity when some of us will be carried through and still get to bask in the same light at the end of the tunnel? The greater good is to save the country but what will we be left with? Higher taxes? Diminished capital? No matter how you slice it, the prudent are now left with no choice but to continue to live within the same means while those who were the most financially incompetant and reaped the biggest benefits will be given the most amount of money to improve theirs.

Presidential Address

President Barack Obama gave his first State of the Union style address before a joint session of Congress. The President told us "I get it," he knows that things are bad. I'm thinking this is the first time a President has used that phrase in a speech.

Anyhow, the President outlined an ambitious agenda, a very tall order for these times, fixing the economy, healthcare, education and investing in renewable energy, technology and entrepreneurship. He also praised the stimulus package, promised America that it would emerge greater and stronger and that it had to make some tough decisions if it wanted to be back on top. Why make such a long and difficult list? These type of lists always set one up to fail but hopefully President Obama will maneuver himself through this crisis and this list and come out on top having solved some of the many longstanding problems whose solutions continue to perplex and beseige America.

Given the economic crisis, I'm just hoping to survive the next couple of years, and hopefully end up better than or the same as I am now, just that I don't end up any worse. That's what I would expect from the President. Alas, he thinks he can get through the crisis and do everything else as well. Good Luck Mr. President. I'm on your side but I'm also fearful of your ambition. Great ambition sometimes can mimimize any achievements if the results end up being less than proposed and of course dreadfully highlights failures. After all, we certainly don't want to blame the black man for the failure of America even if it isn't his fault.

Reflections on a Dow

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) went down 250 points today closing at 7115. By now the bets are out, will it dip below 7000, will it actually touch the sixes? It seems to be all a game now. My retirement savings are tied up in this one market where I am supposed to stake my future economic survival and Wall Street is marginalizing its components, its rationale and by extension, its very being. It is betting on losers to survive e.g. GM with a market cap of less than $1 billion now wants to borrow up to $30 billion, that is the same type of leverage that caused this whole card house to fall.

The DJIA used to be based on something - a small group of well-run firms that have a great product, steady earnings and reasonable growth; a metric by which we could gauge the performance of all companies trading on the stock market. But over the last decade, the more we hailed the quarterly earnings, the more we zoomed in on government reports on various sectors of the economy i.e. gdp, unemployment, and indices for consumer spending, housing and inflation was the more we staked on the Dow telling us on a daily basis where we were. If those numbers changed, the Dow had to change and those underlying companies on which the Index is based had better report good numbers or risk the worst kind of scrutiny and derision.

Others said the Dow wasn't enough to portend the market, the S&P 500 was a better guide. It doesn't really matter now, though. Somehow, the greedy ones raced over to a rainbow that disappeared; a pot of gold that really wasn't there so they faked the numbers and kept on going. Now we all have to give it all back in the numbers - our house values continue to fall, our stock portfolios are off 50% and we can't get any more credit to buy anything. Now the Dow is left to swing wildly 100s of points at a time back and forth between Investor Fear and Investor Confidence making it very difficult to have any faith in it for it truly looks to have separated completely from the fundamentals that made it a reliable bellwether.


P.S. The Dow will not break six tomorrow because the market won't allow it. They (investors) are not ready for that kind of shock though it is not impossible that the 6000 level cannot be reached on a later date.

Market Drags: Dow Drops Below 7500

Ooh, the dreaded scary bottom, the market broke 7500 on the way down today and here I was worried that I'd missed my opportunity when it was at 7600 last fall. This time the naysayers are correct; it is bad. Day-to-day hope is eroding even under our inspiring President. Jobs are disappearing and the stimulus will help, just not right away.

If you speak with any pro-Obama conspiratory theorist, they would tell you that the economic numbers appeared to suddenly plummet after he was elected; the numbers had been artificially inflated by the Bush Administration to help prop up his deflating Presidency and to aid John McCain's bid for the White House. So far, Bush has disappeared altogether, so has Cheney, Rice, Paulson & other Bush notables. Where do they go so quickly?

Or is it that we are inundated with 100% Obama, all of the time. He is the news, there is no other news before us. I am happy that we have so much respect for the President; I am sad that his greatness will be compromised by this depleting economic situaiton. It is not his fault technically but it is all of our fault fundamentally.

Those of us who have the opportunity should find a source of income in this market. I am trying to identify that opportunity then pursue with exactitude. As much as I was hesistent to return to the workforce when my youngest entered 1st grade, it worked out great for all of us and I was looking forward to remaining in this environment for many years forward. My oldest spent most afternoons engaged in one sporting activity or another so I could participate in the after school car pool.

Life was sweet and good when I had my job. We were able to make a dent in the business debt and take a vacation. I felt important and formed an excellent shared partnership with my spouse and we employed extra help for our children and our home. We wanted to be drivers in an entrepreneurial society.

We are down but not out. I am committed to my job search in earnest because I believe I have the skills and ability to be part of the 80-85% who will remain employed through this downturn. The majority of Americans will still have jobs, I believe I belong in the majority. Another great opportunity will present itself for me and I will be very fortunate, not to mention quite grateful and I will work very hard as I tend to do. I will be thoroughly fortified to receive a nice steady paycheck for a hard day's work. I'd be very happy for that.

How Many More Times?

Trumping the news of President Obama's stimulus plans is GM and Chrysler's new request for $39,000,000,000 in aid to remain afloat. That figure is much larger than anticipated and rekindles the debate of the fate of these iconic companies and whether the taxpayers should honor the latest requests on top of the billions they have already received. As much as you want to say "enough is enough" to GM and Chrysler, within the larger context of the bailouts it is hard to shut them out. Wall Street has received trillions of dollars from the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the Congress. How can we give Wall Street all of this money and then shut down America's last bastions of industry?

The stewards of finance made mince meat of the nation's financial backbone and we have injected trillions of dollars into the financial industry to keep it afloat. Yet, for all of this money, none of these banks and investment houses (well the remaining investment houses are all banks now anyway) created jobs - they laid off hundreds of thousands and they did not start lending again - there was no credit available to keep small businesses solvent to retain their workers and/or to make payroll or to provide consumer credit to purchase homes and vehicles. They didn't turn around and do what they should have done after all of that money was pumped in to minimize the liquidity crisis.

I suppose we cannot fathom the damage had the financial industry crumbled yet they have received an awful amount of money and failed to behave as expected. Who can forget the $18+ billion dollars in Wall Street bonuses handed out? The stimulus package is laced with verbiage referring to the creation of jobs and to the preservation of jobs. Jobs that are saved are just as valuable as jobs that are created. It is hard to accept the realization that all of those trillions injected into the financial system have not amounted to enough and the first half of the original $700,000,000,000 in TARP funds, Congress' first round of funding, seems to have been sucked in without remorse. Now Congress has passed another $787,000,000,000. How can it possibly be enough?

Whatever the case, we are now doomed to continue to dole out the funds to save whomever is on the "too big to fail" list including those auto companies. But wait, upon closer inspection, GM states that it will close plants, discontinue brands and reduce the workforce by 47,000. I suppose it is better to save the rest of the remaining company and jobs than let it go altogether. Maybe GM really cannot survive, maybe the situation is beyond itself, beyond us. Unfortunately, the bailout stage has been set, it means that any "also-ran" that may have died in the regular course of economic business is now treated as a viable entity regardless of whether or not it would ordinarily be sustainable; this has happened for the auto companies.

If we think back to the amount of industry that has been economically devastated through the years, we might think of how many we could have saved with taxpayer dollars or we might logically think about the fact that a company had a bad business model or failed to secure good management or failed to recognize the sign of the times and adjust their business accordingly. Polaroid died last week essentially acknowledging that their product was obsolete and that the company has to either reinvent itself or die. That is capitalism. Now that the government has broken all the rules with bailouts, how does this all shakeout? Ok, ok, ok. Will it be luck or connections that will keep your company and/or industry from failing?

When do we re-evaluate who wins or loses going forward? The government simply doesn't have enough money to bailout everyone unless the people who overspent over the last 8 years suddenly change their minds.

A Different Vision of Productivity

It is President's week vacation and while most of the world went back to work today, almost the entire school population is on vacation this week. My husband's company was not off on Monday as it is just as much a regular business day for many private companies though the stock market and the banks are closed.

Today, President Obama signed the $787 stimulus package so it is a go. The Dow went down nearly 300 points when just last week it kept jumping on even a whiff of a bailout package. Today, there is a signed, sealed and delivered package and it drops like a rock. Also, the auto companies are back, hat in hand as we knew they would be, begging for another $39 billion to remain afloat. In addition, the deadline is upon them to submit their corporate sustainability plans. The numbers so far have been dreadful so I don't think much will change for them in the short term though it seems that the UAW has consented to a few concessions which may help the bottom line. How long will it take the Unions to realize that no one is immune from this Recession? Teachers, Government Workers, Carpenters, Electricians, Plumbers and everyone else belonging to similar organizations, you all need to pitch in, to help yourselves and ourselves because there is no good timeline for getting out of this Recession.

As much as the President tries to emphasize that there is no easy fix and a turnaround will not be immediate, we want those 8 years of George Bush to turn around; we certainly do not want to suffer for our excesses too long, right about now or at least upcoming in the Spring there should be a tidy picture of turnarounds; feel good stories about how the stimulus package is helping many families keep their homes. How the money will be apportioned will be of grave importance. How do we structure ourselves for opportunity in the next few years?

What side of the fence will we all be on when we emerge from this Recession? It is hard to look it in the eye, recession. It is hard to accept that it does not seem to be slowing. Everyone is being advised to work as hard as they can and stand out in order to save their job or themselves from layoff. Everyone who has a job is working as hard as they can because they fear losing their job. Those of us who lost their jobs feel like they have to prove productivity while they are home daily clicking resumes into a blank world; an auto-reply notice thanking you for submitting your resume. One time I did hear back that I was not the type of candidate they were seeking - it was a job on Long Island so I was rooting for it a little bit. Now, I am sending resumes to NYC and NJ wryly wondering how in the heck I would swing it; it is hard for both parents to commute to NYC from Suffolk County.

President Obama's plan was supposed to save us and it landed as flatly when the TARP was signed back in the fall. How much more Government spending will be necessary? I think most poeple know that the well has run dry but we are all in denial about that part. 8 whole years of destruction can't be turned around in a month but we want Obama to have fixed it today and we want our lives to be freed from our own monetary sins.

It is Not in Our Nature

Finally, the data has caught up to reality, Americans woke up to the news today that 8 years of wealth gains have been wiped out. Never mind that the Dow Industrials have been hovering at year 2000 levels for almost a year declining almost 50% in value or that the country has been in a recession for a year.

It takes a while for Americans to come to terms with the facts of economic life; though things are bad, none of us is really willing to clamp down completely. We do want to believe that things will get better; who wants to be the doom and gloom person this year, repeating time after time that things will not be getting better this year, which unfortunately is the truth, or try to remain optimistic, a difficult feat.

Americans seemingly have beleaguered expectations. Everyone needs economic assistance, the Government cannot come up with an effective stimulus plan and the stimulus plan will ultimately help those who were the most egregious. The banks have behaved terribly and have received trillions of dollars so that they can survive, the homeowners who overburdened themselves who now loudly claim that the banks recklessness in approving these unsustainable loans assisted their demise, who will be responsible?

What Americans have to accept is that it took almost a decade for the country to wind up in this position; it cannot be solved in a few months or even one year, no matter how much money the government throws at the problem. America does not have much patience; they want it all fixed now. This will be the first time these generations are subjected to hard times and we don't know what it means to sacrifice or anything remotely similar. It is not in our nature.

Recession Means Everybody...Including Sports

Despite the financial turmoil befalling us, salaries for sports players are stratospheric. Are they really worth this much money? I understand the sports franchises are extremely profitable and that the players should benefit from profit-sharing. However, I am surprised that there is more profit to be made from sports even though expenditure on every other item considered disposal income is shrinking. I think they are wrong about sports this time around.

During the depression, sports kept the country's morale afloat but there was little to choose from for entertainment. There are too many things competing with sports franchises starting with 700+ channels of available entertainment. Also, video games and other electronic devices vying for our attention not to mention the internet, instant messaging and texting.

If we were worried about the species communicating, we can put any discontent to rest. More than ever, people must be yapping to someone even while they are ordering food at the fast food restaurant. Then, they get angry when the server gets their order wrong. Sports is wonderful and I've had my share of it. I grew up with 3 brothers so I had no chance at the TV. It was sports as much as it was on. I think this is a dying breed, the sports-fan. I know a fan when I see one, my brothers are a bit extreme, I might add. Nevertheless, they lament that sports has gotten way too expensive. As the entertainment of the common man, the ticket prices are not common at all.

Sports will price itself out. $250 for a show will soon be way out of reach for most of us.

The Dow Plunges Nearly 400 Points as Street Rejects Geithner's Plan

I am still trying to figure out why the market tanked so hard today. I thought Wall Street was waiting with baited breath for the stimulus package to be passed which it was. Last week the market rallied on its supposed passing but did not drastically tank when it did not, it was ultimately sent back for more tweaking. Granted the tweaking was ridiculous since the Senate and House Bills were only a few billion dollars off and in a bill worth over $800 billion, the supposed tweaks were muscle flexing without any true consequence.

Anyhow, Wall Street must have been disgruntled with the new Treasury Secretary's proposal for the remaining TARP funds. I am understanding that the market went down nearly 400 points because it is possible that Investors did not like the fact that additional funds would be needed - everyone knows that the proposals are not nearly what is required but we are too far in debt to provide the truly costly package that is needed, they did not like the public-private investment partnership that was proposed - well the financial institutions have soaked up the first round of TARP funds plus the trillions from the Treasury and the Federal Reserve and still have not freed up the credit markets opting to keep the money to shore up their balance sheets and underwrite their bonus packages, and lastly they did not like that there were not anymore specifics on the remainder of the TARP funds because he mentioned that banks would be held more accountable and their balance sheets would now be "stress-tested" for market viability before they received more funds.

Apparently there is confusion in the plan, it did not explain the whole "bad-bank" proposal that would now buy up bad assets, Paulson's original plan that was never implemented, and it seemed to indicate that banks receiving bailout funds must adhere to more stringent rules where they would be required to lend but mostly the Street is unhappy because Treasury Secretary Geithner did not provide enough specifics of the whole plan. Too Bad.

The market certainly went hopping and ga-ga over Paulson's original 3 page bailout proposal to Congress but now that the Treasury Secretary states that the financial crisis is still bad and there is still lots of risk, the Street is choking. It seems to me that Investors are plain old mad that the Government is not promising to do all the spending itself; it expects Investors to help out. All the Investors want is a full-fledged Government Guarantee of funds. They did not get it today. Good. Let's start playing by some rules. Wall Street can't continue to reap bonuses without some skin in the game.

Obama Whatevers

I am back from my vacation and it was just the right break at the right moment. It was money well spent and enough to get us through the next few years until we travel again. Now, I have to turn my mind back to the developments at large, another desperate plea for stimulus funds and the same sky is falling mentality that Bush shepherded us through during the Paulson-Bernanke days. And, oh yes, President Obama's first primetime press conference.

The Press is following every soundbite of the President Obama making the rounds at Congress to rally for the stimlus package worth $827,000,000,000. How do we know that this set wil not hoard the funds and wait it out with government funds padding the bottom line?

If you ask the portion of the population that put all their efforts into getting Obama elected, whatever plan he presents is "fine", they are still coasting on the election results, excited to see Obama being hailed as Mr. President and to cheer whatever ceremony continues the celebration of Obama's election. Noone is crossing the President yet, not the Press with its soft-ball questions and analysis. Mr. Obama is the President now but the reality has not sunk in, we are all simply happy to see him there. Whatever grievances are just noise.

It is nice to see a President responding eloquently on a wide range of topics to the point where the pundits were all commenting on his verbosity. But, we really should be paying attention, politics is still politics, Obama or no Obama, but we'll follow everything he says, for now...Whatever.

Vacation

Reflections on the Gulf Coast from my very happy children in the form of unsolicited handwritten poetry...priceless

It is nice and warm in Florida
We went to the pool because it is so warm.

Florida is an extremely nice place to be
The warm weather invites you in
While the delicious seafood captivates your taste buds.

Through the eyes of babes, that is where we will reap the most joy from our decisions; showing up just when we forget to look. They are happy and so am I. My husband still needs another day to overcome the expense. Ah, nothing is perfect.

I'm Leaving on a Jet Plane

It is true, my vacation is a reality; we're leaving tomorrow for the Florida gulf coast where it will be a little warmer than here and there will be some history to discover. I am still apologizing for the expense since I'm making a decision against the grain; and certainly not conserving enough or the money could be gladly appropriated to debt service. Anyway, I'm not sure if I will write since I won't want to stay up so late to write especially if I want to get the most of out of each day including a good night's sleep. Unfortunately, unlike the song, I will be back again to pick up my world; and attack my world with renewed vigor. I am looking forward to that part, I'll have plenty of gratitude to show myself for taking this trip and I want to be deserving of my own largesse.

Its Groundhog day but the shadows disagreed; this weather has been too crazy to predict anyway, the bad economic news showers us like naked rain and you need the power to go on. How did it get this bad so quickly and is any of us really behaving rationally? My job search has dried up completely; it has taken me by surprise. How swiftly most of the job prospects have vanished. I have always found a job when I needed a job and I am willing to work hard. I enjoy doing a good job and I'm not afraid of work so I'll shift my paradigm and move on - I will find something, I am certain. 85% of Americans are working if you double the unemployment statistics which is probably closer to the true number and I'm sure I have enough skills to make it through with the majority.

February has raced in all too quickly; the last of the winter is upon us and there is more bad weather to come. The last three winters have been fairly mild out here in Suffolk County, our lake did not freeze. It froze the first year we were here and now in year five. I went out on my almost new skates, the ones I bought in year 2 never for the lake to freeze again, and took a few rounds, it was very nice. I am trying to embrace winter sports but I don't really like being cold so that doesn't help. I generally try not to complain when it is hot outside, this is the side I have picked and what sends me running down South for some warmer weather. According to the weather forcast, my first few days will be unseasonably cool then the temp goes back into the high 70s the day I leave, oh well. My luck will come around.