Happy New Year!

Happy Holidays!

Most Have Shopped but Many Have Not Dropped

I'm feeling much better now that we have plowed through most of the shopping today. Thankfully the shopping was mild and we happily found deep discounts as promised. Surprisingly there was no frenzy or rushing, not too many lines, no overwhelming bags of goods and breathing room; a boon to the shopper, a sad requiem for a retailer. As we looked beyond ourselves to observe the fellow shoppers and their purchases - there were many lookers but still no takers - juxtaposed with the retailers we think are on the "list" as it were; we tried to narrow down who will be the winners and losers in the postscript. More later.

In the meantime, my husband and I bought meager gifts for each other, hoping to capitalize on the upcoming bargains we know will be beckoning next week. We can wait because our joy will come from saving money in the post-holiday shopping phase, not what will be under the tree for us in 2 days. We both have nice non-extravagant lists that we hope to fulfill at just the right price.

All shopping aside though, we all should know by now that the holidays are primarily about reaching out to family, friends and neighbors and making a positive connection. These winter celebrations are truly about the humanity in all of us. Don't forget to find yours and do something with it.

False Positive: Trying to Evade Gloom and Doom

May I be so bold as to go down that road. The road that I am trying to steer away from, the road that has been trampled lately, the road of gloom and doom that appears to be enveloping me despite myself. Not that I have been seeming all that positive lately but in my mind I really was trying. After all, we have to elevate ourselves above the fray if we want to survive.

Today is Tuesday before Christmas and I still have no gifts; well I finally ran out tonight to get a few "school gifts" realizing that tomorrow was the last day of school for the year. I absolutely do not like waiting for the last minute to shop because I hate having to jockey for position and wait on endless lines during the holiday shopping season yet here I am. Now, I have no choice, I have to do it all tomorrow or else.

I wish I wasn't so plain-minded when it comes to shopping then I would have had it all done already. Unfortunately, if I don't have any money or I feel my cash stream is finite, like losing a job, I will not shop, I go into lock-down; I simply will not buy another thing - I am frozen. I haven't even been to the supermarket. I have tried to do the holiday shopping since I was laid off, I have gone to the mall and all the usual discount retailers and I haven't seen anything I want to buy; not one thing has moved me.

Now the financial news shows are raising the red flag, don't buy gift cards at retailers that may not make it past January 2009 for the disconcerting reality is that this is one of the most dismal shopping seasons in decades and many retailers simply will not make enough this holiday season to survive. How the heck is the average person supposed to know which retailers are not going to make it? I try to do a little internet research and I can find plenty of lists of those that have closed under-performing stores or have simply died in 2008. So far, I have not been the most successful finding a good clean list of those that are in jeopardy outside of my own observation...this seems like everyone. Consumer spending is nearly 70% of GDP so if we don't spend; it seems that the economy is doomed anyhow.

You turn on the news and it is nothing but gloom and doom; how many years has it been since we've seen this statistic, this performance, this cycle, and the finality that this downturn will last through next year for sure. Though every guru keeps repeating the mantra that people should prepare for the worst, the reality is that most people really do not have a rainy day fund - that was what credit cards and home equity lines of credit were for. Now that those sources are dried up, most of us do not have the funds we need to survive. Today, commercial builders are begging the government for help because their debt is coming due to the tune of $160,000,000,000.

The bailout road is now on black ice; just slipping and sliding with no clue; everyone is slipping and we have no clue where to turn. How do we know who will survive? Last night, my husband and I were discussing where to invest; now is the time to adjust our 401ks. They keep telling us bargains are to be had in this market and we should steer ourselves towards those. So, I was thinking about companies that may benefit from the proposed infrastructure investments; caterpillar came to mind, they will be providing equipment I said. This morning I woke up to find out I was wrong, wrong, wrong. Caterpillar announced today that it was cutting salaries of all senior management and preparing other cost cutting measures to aid in its survival through next year.

I don't have a crystal ball and neither does anyone else but things really, really, really do not look so good this time around. I am going to keep looking for that light at the end of the tunnel but this tunnel seems awfully long already.

We May Desire but Do We Really Deserve!

Today I went to the mall figuring I would do some holiday shopping during the week to avoid the crowds. Surprisingly the mall was jam packed; holiday shopping SRO as usual despite all the news to the contrary that retail was down. So I focused in on the shoppers and I realized that they didn't have many bags and I had none. I was looking and searching and thinking but I was not satisfied with my choices. Fine choices all and some even at a decent value, I guess, but nothing that made me bite.

Why? I'm not sure, my holiday shopping budget is still intact, it was conservative to begin with, but perhaps, maybe too conservative. Really, my gift budget per person probably can be characterized as chintzy and maybe that is the reality for all of us. Therefore, why buy someone a cheap tchotchke that you know they may not like or simply might re-gift just to get them a gift?

The truth is that after the big shopping spree we have had for the last 8 years, no one really needs anything. Look around, the only complaint that I have really ever heard over the last few years is the need for more storage. No matter how large the homes we owned, we filled it with stuff. Most of us simply have too much stuff. Is there anyone out there who really needs a gift? Though I am willing to accept all ideas if someone has any because I haven't been able to come up with much so far.

I can tell you what I want - my desires are all for the house, a new master bathroom and kitchen, both of which are basically dead, 30 years old and counting. Ask me if I need af any of it, probably not, will I survive, absolutely! Nevertheless, we somehow have the 'desire and deserve' gene that doesn't disappear with a souring economy. If you work hard, you want a reward, the paycheck is part of it and you are grateful enough for it to pay the bills and secure your world but most of us find it hard to live or exist on an austerity budget, whatever the case we still need to treat ourselves to something.

They say charity begins at home and I certainly donate every single item that I no longer have use for. I am a sentimental soul so I save all items that are given to me; letters, gifts & items no matter how small, if you give it to me, I will keep it except household goods, clothing and all that - I will pass those on if I know another family can use them but that bear that one of my good friends gave to me during my freshman year of college, I have that and of course, every single thing that my children ever made for me. I wonder about securing all of it though, mother nature could take my house anytime.

Do any of us really need more stuff? As we try to pay down our debts and keep our financial selves above water, should we really be adding even more debt by still striving to give each other gifts? Probably not. Most of us barely remember what holiday gifts we received last year.

We have been fortunate in America thus far and our recent troubles are our own. If we do have some cash, we should be preserving it to make it through next year. All indications are that it will be 2010 before things turn around. What we need to remember to do is to give of ourselves. I am certainly going to try.

The Audacity of Wall Street Bonuses

I just finished reading an article in today's New York Times reporting on Wall Street bonuses that having been tied to profits we now know were based on way too much risk, created a culture of greed so severe, they played Russian roulette with our money.

Now that all of the money is lost and many Wall Street firms are bankrupt with the rest blatantly staving of death with large infusions of taxpayer dollars, the culture of greed still has not subsided. Though many firms have introduced more oversight with respect to the earning of future bonuses, most Wall Streeters will still see bonuses this year, smaller maybe, but still a bonus.

It took the Dow Industrials 76 years to hit 1000 in November 1972 and another 14 years to reach 2000 in January 1987. After that, it took another 4 years to reach 3000 and 4000 was reached 4 years later in February 1995. By May 1999, a mere 4 years later, the Dow had reached 11,000 and boy were we jumping. The sheer intensity of the rise certainly reset all of our mindsets. In the early 2000s, instant millionaires abounded, individual wealth on paper reach staggering proportions. Wall street bonuses catapulted into unheard-of millions. Everybody wanted to be rich. Since hindsight is 20/20 we can look back and draw our conclusions effortlessly.

If we are to sum up the data, the Dow retreated to less than 9000 in 2003 and after roaring to 14,000 in July 2007, is back to less than 9000 again. the last time it was less than 9000 was in early 1998. We are back to the levels not seen for a decade and what happened during that decade? The most amount of money that could be borrowed was borrowed and the most amount of money that could be spent was spent, all of this while the intrinsic value of the market was inflated due to the swirling fiscal excess.

We now have found out that all the money we spent should not have been spent and all the money that was borrowed definitely should not have been borrowed. Now we all have to suffer and pay the piper. So, why do all those Wall Streeters still get bonuses when no money has been made and especially when the taxpayer has granted most of those firms hundreds of billions to survive?

We Didn't Start The Fire But We Still Have to Pay

The financial situation of most of the middle class here on Long Island is always foremost on my mind. I still have the same question that I had when I started this blog, how is everyone surviving? I thought I would have some insight by now but it is still a mystery to me.

Now we add to the mix the $15,400,000,000 budget gap, attributed largely to a decline in tax revenue from Wall Street, in the New York State budget that requires serious action on the Governor's part. In response, he proposed today serious cuts in school aid and health services, layoffs of state workers, an increase in many ordinary NY State fees, new taxes on just about every bit of entertainment that exists in the state and a repeal of certain tax exemptions especially the star (property tax) rebate.

Some of the Governor's proposed solutions will be painful for all of us; we don't want to have to pay more to renew our licenses and registrations or pay more to download a song on the internet. Most importantly, any cuts in aid means that the local taxpayer has to pick up the tab. More fees and taxes is the last thing that any New Yorker wants to hear right now. However, this is where fiscal reality meets us and indeed it is very unpleasant. We may not have started the fire but we certainly didn't push for fire prevention either.

Interestingly enough, the magnitude of the layoffs is very small, 521 out of some 200,000 state workers. This is an almost negligible layoff, speaking from one who has lived to tell the tale. Indeed the rollbacks on some employee benefits will meet the ire of many especially when the career veterans have already been grand-fathered into much better benefits than the new hires. As every special interest starts screaming bloody murder from the mountaintops this week, we will see what kind of backbone state legislators have when they sit down to vote on all of this.

Can Get There From Here

Well I am feeling much better today, having worked through my 5 stages of grief since my layoff a week ago and having resolved to make lemonade out of lemons, I have chosen to push on with purpose.

Friday night was the company Holiday Party at a fancy catering hall that I was looking forward to attending, so in keeping with the tradition, many of us ex-employees having reserved that night out anyway staged our own Holiday Party. We had a great time. It was good to remember why we liked working with each other and how we had a nice group of people to add to our professional networking profiles on the web. LinkedIn, essentially a Facebook-type networking site for professionals, is the most well-known. It doesn't have all the Facebook goodies but I suppose it might not be appropriate to send widget plant gifts or other plug-ins to our business associates or why not? Perhaps there should be some humor in job-hunting which truly is a thankless job.

Job-hunting requires full-time effort; nothing less will produce meaningful results. However, those around you suddenly think you are free and somehow don't seem to recognize the time and effort required on a daily basis if you are serious about finding a new job: revising and revising the resume, targeting the resume by incorporating verbiage from the job offering. refining and improving your professional network, writing those dreaded cover letters and the sheer time-consuming act of simply searching all the job boards. These last 2 weeks of December are probably the worst time to be job-hunting due to the distraction of the holidays, a great & enjoyable distraction, but a distraction nevertheless when you want to hear something from a hiring company. So, while I do spend quite a bit of time on it, I do recognize that the turn of the year may bring better prospects.

My family started this year with the slogan "2008 will be great" and we all know how well that turned out. Now, we are looking forward to "2009 will be fine." Did I really write this in my holiday cards this year? While I focus on the holidays, I will try to take the best of the holiday spirit with me and forever be grateful for the opportunities I was granted this year. My goodness, don't I sound positive? We get bombarded with rhetoric, teaching, healing, books, medicine and other pearls of wisdom that we should remain positive no matter what. I suppose I'll give it another few weeks to find out if my feelings are truly "live" or "memorex."

"God Put a Smile upon my Face"

Well, my husband will live too see another day at his job. The layoffs went down today as scheduled but thankfully, it was not his turn, today. We are now on a month by month employment watch. We are way too cynical by now to believe that any job in the private sector has a shred of job security.

There aren't any guarantees since no one knows what direction any company should go. Should it retrench to its core business units and tread water or continue promising new innovations that expand its market presence, position it for future growth and produces new revenue even though it requires a greater investment in operating costs? Retrenching could sacrifice the future but new innovations could sacrifice today's bottom line that has to remain positive to survive. Whatever the case, employment reductions have to take place and unfortunately will continue to take place if the economy does not turn around soon.

Does anyone see a better future in 2009? Right now things do not look good which is why it is imperative, more than ever, to quit the bailout mentality and let Capitalism fix itself; let the companies that are swifter, better positioned, agile and innovative take over the space left by the struggling behemoths. Why are we so afraid of letting the market decide the fate of a company? New companies will rise and grow to meet the challenges of a global economy thereby increasing employment opportunities for all. The government can augment job creation with new infrastructure projects and alternative energy initiatives.

We cannot forget the fundamentals of business; a company is only as strong as its balance sheet and we shouldn't get hoodwinked into scare tactics because it is a venerable brand, other exalted brands have come and gone. Business will survive and revive if we allow it to follow the natural life cycle of capitalism for there is always another company waiting in the wings to take over.

Some Ups but More Downs

Memorable phrase of the day: "Let me have $20 of regular, please" knowing that would fill my tank.

Gas is now $1.79 a gallon in my area. I never in my wildest dreams ever thought I would see the day again when gas was less than $2 a gallon or that I would pay $2 a gallon for my latest delivery of home heating oil. I definitely have to recommend codfuel.com to any Long Islander who is looking for the best deal on oil delivery. Gone are the days of paying at least $0.80 a gallon extra for the privilege of having a full contract with an oil company that included "free" service calls. We are going to roll the dice on this one considering that we replaced the water heater and the boiler a few years ago.

Sometimes we get so accustomed to a particular level of comfort and service that it takes a bit more than the usual prodding to undergo a regular review of expenses to find savings in the budget. Thankfully, my husband and I are fairly conservative in our expenditure and even more since we are diligently attacking business debt. Mind you, I am not sure that I am going to look back and enjoy this particular factor of my life. I think I would like to live a little sometimes and not be so fanatical about every expense.

After having my job for a couple of months, we released the tight financial reins a little bit to begin the process of replacing some completely worn out, broken and/or missing items in the house. 5 years ago, we bought Ikea in the hope that 5 years hence, which is now, we would move up a step to purchasing more premium items that would take us through the college years. I know I referred to Ikea in a recent post, so you know we were back there realizing that we have to do budget-conscious replacements again and delay once more our desire to find more permanent furnishing solutions. I think I am simply out of touch now with the reality of the amounts of dollars required to do a decent room upgrade; the kind of dollars that I simply cannot afford to spend right now and not sure when.

In light of my layoff on Monday, I am so happy that we stuck to the rule that we only spent what we could afford; cash only, no credit. Granted, we were tempted to splurge on many occasions but we both managed to talk ourselves out of it as usual. This is an area that is never of issue with us, neither of us is ever willing to spend more than the other which I have to state once more is simply not the best way; always being prudent can put the damper on things much too often, I suspect. For instance, traveling is something that I truly love to do and in reality have done so little of it lately other than the typical interstate driving to visit friends and relatives. However, every time I get that crazy notion that I want to actually fly somewhere, something that I haven't done since 2002, I multiply that airfare by 4, consider the hotel and eating costs and talk myself right out of it.

Last weekend, I was optimistic about the future, I had all the ducks in a row; my job would allow us to forge ahead despite the obvious challenges. My husband was feeling a little more "doom and gloom," directly influenced by the financial and business news, which is understandable. I countered that we should have a positive outlook on things since after all we both have jobs. I actually started to consider saving for a trip next year. We decided that when we were comfortable with the dent that we made on the business debt, we were going to go somewhere to celebrate, break our usual mold and surrender our usual penny-pinching selves. Alas it is not to be, yet again. I lost my job first thing Monday morning and he got an email the same day that his company planned to lay off nearly 500 people tomorrow.

Some would say have faith, the Lord works in mysterious ways, or we all have to pay our spiritual dues or we are lucky to be in a better position than many or we are simply lucky just to be alive and be happily married with children, or that we are fortunate to have a house or that we should be just downright grateful for everything.

Ask me again tomorrow what I think about that. Right now, I am definitely having trouble seeing the bright side.

What The Heck

Is it better to be good or be lucky? Sometimes I think it is better to be lucky, no matter what, these people land on their feet, keep making money and inspire jealousy as overpriced hacks. Sometimes I think it is better to be good, integrity and all that, giving us true meaning in our lives; whether rewarded or not, the absolute value of good transcends all. Ultimately it is better to be lucky and good, the benefits of being the best coupled with the rewards of being so lucky. May the best part of this be bestowed on many of us as we navigate our journey through this minefield of financial uncertainty.

Tonight's Nightline broadcast threw out the loaded question of whether Wall Street executives deserve bonuses this year. It got me to thinking:

The term "billion" is thrown around so regularly now that I am led to believe that Americans really do not want to comprehend what that numerical amount really means because true comprehension would require the reality of riots in the streets.

Spell out $1 billion dollars in zeros and it is $1,000,000,000 or $1000 million dollars. $35 billion in bonuses is $35,000 million ($35,000,000,000) dollars in bonuses handed out last year to the lucky few simply because they worked in the financial sector where people use money to make money. Most of us simply cannot comprehend that amount of money, we just accept the monetary terms in shorthand without the zeros.

It has been reported that the stock market lost almost $$3,000,000,000,000 this year in value and the government and quasi-government agencies - the Congress, the Treasury, the FDIC and the Federal Reserve - have injected almost as much into the seized financial markets to keep the whole system alive.

I lost my job yesterday due to the financial mess created by these Wall Street executives. To utter the word bonus should be an insult to the intelligence of the ordinary person. How could anyone receive a bonus for losing so much money and by extent undermining the economy? This couldn't possibly be the intent of the bonus system or of capitalism itself.

Laid Off

Today I was laid off, all of my speculation and weariness rewarded with the sinking stone of finality stemming from a demise of very awkward precision. With the stroke of a pen and a decision, controversial yet understandable from the viewpoint of the maker, my entire department was excised from the company; eliminated with no prior notice nor whiff of rumor. How did we miss that?

There is no prior notice of upheaval if there is no picking and choosing to be made; everybody goes and nobody knows. I suppose it is easier that way, McCain-style as it were, lacking finesse as reported during the debates. McCain was going to take a "hatchet to the federal budget" but Obama was going to "wield a scalpel" expertly removing the tumor of governmental budgetary waste like a surgeon.

Over the last month and a half, layoffs have taken center stage. So devastating an animal, so despondent a beast. This morning on the way to work on-time for a change, after utilizing the barter arrangement with our neighbors down the street for the occasional morning school bus duty (our school bus comes at 8:45 or so making me 5-10 minutes late to work on those days when my husband does not work from home) I turned up NPR, as usual, for the morning news.

I only listen to NPR/public radio in the car, news or classical music is all I need and my children will refer to this when they are grown as "one of mom's quirky habits." I have plenty, of which I am very proud, since many of them actually help my kids to get smarter, despite themselves; they may beg to differ. Anyhow, there was news of Dow Chemical's 11% workforce reduction, 5000 full-time and 6000 contractor positions plus the shuttering of 20 plants, that made me realize I had both hands on the steering wheel and I was thanking my lucky stars that I still had a job...until I arrived and found out some 15 minutes later that I no longer had a job.

I hate the whole stealth HR thing: swooping in, accompanying you to an office or conference room, rattling some prepared speech about severance - yadda yadda - the turning in of your badge, being accompanied back to your desk for your things and you are gone. No time to say goodbye, no time to clear the cookies from your workstation and definitely no time to go to the toilet. Though they are sorry and sad and it is not a performance issue, and in my case the severance was generous for my short tenure, you still are summarily dismissed like a leper.

Thankfully, a little loitering in the parking lot revealed the wicked truth, that it was all of us, not some of us, and some went home sadly, alone. I chose to go to the diner with some of my compatriots to commiserate and it was good. I hadn't had time for my usual coffee and oatmeal as I was motivated to dash out some emails before my morning meeting ritual began. Some coffee and a bagel was all I could stomach though; that same old wretched feeling of loss, perhaps abandonment, confounding me even though I felt armed with enough intellectual preparation.

A colleague of mine said, "maybe the Lord was telling her to stay home with her children" and how she was sad to have to let go her babysitter. It dawned on me that I was in the same boat having to release my afternoon care-giver, the person who had made my 9-5 so bearable, so seamless. We concluded that for every mother that was laid off, there was a caregiver who also lost a job and that is a sad reality of all of this mess, collateral damage as it were and an important point that is usually lost in the reporting shuffle.

Alas, I really liked this job, all of the pieces were right. May I find another soon enough that I might not sweat, at least not too long to sow seeds of regret.

Communication

I have a choice, I can talk to my friends in person or I can write this thing which proves I am alive. I am always in a constant deficit when it comes to communication, I think about my friends and relatives a lot more than actually contacting them but I always hope that the extent of our relationship allows that we still know each other intimately the second that we do actually connect and for the most part this is true. I often excuse myself from the nitty gritty confident in the knowledge that I love them dearly and will give them my time whenever necessary; not enough for some - but plenty for many.

I enter this topic in a roundabout way as I review this year's Thanksgiving holidays. The actual Thanksgiving dinner was a lovely affair involving our parents, siblings, nieces and nephews. Our "2nd Thanksgiving" meal started out as a mere invitation to dinner to greet relatives from abroad; my father's sister was in town and my brother and his wife ended up throwing what amounted to a 2nd Thanksgiving banquet on Saturday. I thought I had sealed the deal with my 20 person spread but they had nearly 30, all of them relatives, including many first cousins, on my father's side.

It was fascinating to me to meet so many blood relatives that I barely knew, some I had never met. I thought about the meaning of family, which to me is my mom and my siblings, the people I grew up with. My family is multi-national and we simply have all not been in the same countries at the same time to forge meaningful relationships. My brother grew up to seek more of his extended family, him and his wife much more in tune with that particular round table. I am never sure if his enthusiasm for family connection means that he should automatically include me, give out my phone number and bring me into a "family fold."

My older brother enjoyed the gathering most of all which was surprising since he has pretty steadfastly held onto his protectorate, his state within which very few relatives reside. This is understandable since we grew up as immigrants in a country where we had virtually no relatives to speak of so making these types of connections was extremely limited, separated by oceans and by extension, unfamiliarity, in a previous era with expensive long distance phone calls, no email, no cell phones, no world wide web and no advanced telecommunications as we know them today.

In my old world, we were supposed to write letters, seal them and send them and communicate all that was of value and for most, it did not always work out smoothly and that was ok; we didn't have any immediate ways to imagine at the time. The urgency of cell phone communication, email, instant messaging and texting sometimes sets me back a little, wondering what there is that is so important to say that it can't wait. And true to form when you are privy to these types of messages, the value sometimes is of so little importance that what could be said could have easily waited for a landline or even a letter.

The News That Surrounds Me

With all of the news that surrounds most of us, it is easy to understand why Americans are 6 in 10 against the bailout of the auto companies. It is hard to emphasize with the UAW when the realities of your own situation pale in comparison to their privileged world:

There are rumors that my husband's company is ready to do a significant layoff next week. It is a large company but it has significant debt that creates an almost permanent negative impact on the books; there are always quarterly losses prompting quarterly layoffs over the last few years. The rumors are usually true since the layoffs have become more regular now, the corporate culture is one of uncertainty, about people holding onto their jobs for a paycheck until they are the next to go; no one expects a week without upheaval. There is no union preventing people from being laid-off at-will or exacting the promise of a paycheck even if the work dries up. Most employees now work at their own risk, the propects of a similar job for similar pay are slim since the industry has been suffering a downturn since 2001 from which it has never really recovered.

The other major aspect is that management has changed little, with the layoffs coming bottom up, not top down. Unfortunately, this scenario gets compounded by the fact that management usually has the most management experience even if they have done a terrible job. If you listen to the logic of most companies, they have to preserve bonuses and other perks to keep their managers from absconding; how can they run without experienced managers? Unfortunately, many of these managers may be the very same people who ran the company into the ground in the first place. It is clear that my husband's company has been badly run for some time but those people are not getting rid of themselves anytime soon.

My husband is grateful that he has a job and receiving a decent paycheck for his hard work and so am I. Hopefully he will survive the next round but we still could tighten our belts even further and save even more money just in case. I double-checked with my benefits representative that if he loses his job and we lose our health benefits that I qualify to sign us all up for the health benefit at my job; I am currently waiving mine since both of our plans cost about the same and there is no reason to upset the cart, for now.

Since I have only been at my job for 3 months, I simply have no comfort zone at all. I don't think I will ever settle in since the job trimmings continue despite the assurance after the layoffs last month that we were the crew going forward, in fact the executive who told us that is no longer with the company having been terminated last week.

Obama This, Obama That

Well, it wasn't going to be too long before I weighed in on the Obama Cabinet picks. Hate Them. Well, not all of them, just too many familiar faces. Familiarity breeds contempt doesn't it? 

I could re-trench the commentary, too many Clintonites, too many Senators including the Pres. and Vice Pres., too many Democrats, too many Governors, and what's with the keeping of Bush's lapdog Defense Secretary Robert Gates? Or that Hilary Clinton for Secretary of State? Talk about keeping your enemies close enough to ship them out of the country whenever you like. There's the riffs on change we need, apparently Obama's advisors are telling him, you're all the change you're going to get away with buddy, you better pick some people who actually know what to do. So now we have barely any change at all. 

I'm trying to avoid all of this speculation and punditry, it is like commentary at a sporting event except it is drowning out the game and making Obama seem less than exciting. He is behaving so Presidentially, he is no longer at ease or as engaging. I want my old pre-elected Obama back.

Actually, following the play by play is usually not my style. There is only one event that I want to witness and that's the inauguration. All of this fill the void brouhaha is what it is, noise.

The government runs for itself, by the people who protect it, and for those who are a part of it. Representation is almost dead, like chivalry, it is nice in theory but can only be partially executed. You can hold the door open for the girl, she passes through, she thanks you but tells you to stay the hell out of her way next time, she can really do it herself or elect the President for the people, he can only present change but if the people are not truly willing, he cannot fully execute it.

"R" Word Comes Out of the Closet

Today, the National Bureau of Economic Research finally played the "R" Card. Not only is the U.S. economy in a Recession but it has been so since last December. What? The Think Tank of Think Tanks finally deigns to call a spade a spade almost a year into the card game. How long was it going to take before the experts recognized the Commerce Department's sleight of hand as it issued false positive GDP data all year long (only to revise the numbers long after the fact and when we stopped looking.) There was barely an eyebrow raising last week when they released their revised data.

All of us little people have known the truth for as long as it has taken for the experts to parse the numbers. With major banks crashing, major industries crashing, 30 U.S. States deeply in the red, retailers going belly-up, the stock market at an all time low and Wall Street firms in disarray, the Treasury and the Federal Reserve having spent trillions trying to shore up the financial markets and so on, we needed to wait til December 1 to find out the truth. We have been drowning in so much negative data that we have plum forgotten the stimulus package we the people received last Spring, the first of many handouts that was supposed to save the economy.

Of course this "new" bad news sent the markets down nearly 700 points for no reason whatsoever. No surprise here, just another round of end of the world scenarios to get our knickers in a twist over. Tomorrow, the slightest smidgen of good news can provoke a rally in the other direction. Meaningless.

Yes, we have been in a Recession for quite some time. If this is news to you, then you must be too rich to notice and in that case, I want to be your friend.

Thanksgiving

We made our Thanksgiving donation this year and a family will have a traditional Thanksgiving turkey and all the trimmings courtesy of our family. It was a small gesture but it makes a difference. When Thanksgiving comes around, we always want to make a contribution, we have good ideas like helping out at Island Harvest, the Food Pantry, but we always want to do more. Those of us who can should give as much as we can because we are human, times are tough and we need to help each other.

Enjoy your family, think about the world, and have a different thought than you usually have, be grateful for life and all that it offers and most of all, enjoy your day off. I know I will!

We All Need Our Own Personal Bailout Plan

This year we are hosting Thanksgiving. It has been about 4 years since we have done the grand host; our parents, siblings and their kin all arriving to dine and scare the bejesus out of us. It will be fun but it does remind us that the desire to stay home for Thanksgiving takes too much work. Getting ready goes beyond the shopping and the food; there has to be change in the house. All of the dingy items that have been calling out for replacement now want their due;  we went to Ikea last Saturday and Sunday trying to spruce up for a moderate cost. 

I went into Linens 'n Things to find some "going out of business" bargains and still their prices were so hefty that the bargains were not meaningful enough to me. Yesterday, they shut their doors for good. Circuit City is right behind them and many more retailers, I'm sure, after the holiday shopping season seals their fate one way or the other; survival of the fittest is in full swing. I have to say that I am amazed by the sheer amount of empty brand new strip-mall retail space that was built and unfortunately finished this year; the builder with permits in place, a plot to build and a building to construct had to continue with the plan even as the tide turned against him/her. So many builders were caught in the frenzy of construction, they did not stop to research their audience. So many retailers rushed to build stores to accommodate the legions of shoppers who really were just borrowing cheap money to shop. 

The economy is bloated simply because it is currently built on excess, all of those growth numbers and accompanying statistics were just a figment; anticipation of a rate of continued business that simply was unsustainable by any measure. The downside was completely forgotten and the contingency plan buried under a mountain of cheap money therefore the economy has a heck of a lot of weight to shed; we have to allow for survival of the fittest to define success again. All of the over-expansion in this decade would have been limited if we actually realized that none of us was making any more money yet we were buying bigger houses and more stuff,  and we had remembered the lessons of the generation before us, maintaining a healthy fear of debt. Too many of us were lulled into a level of consumption that it is a comfort zone that we wish not to abandon; we want to lose nothing and we expect to feel no pain.

The reality is we all need our own personal bailout plan; plan that you might lose your job, plan that you might lose your benefits, plan for a rainy day, if you don't have a budget make one now, prepare for a sustained recession because that is where we are right now. We can worry all we want, we can't change what is happening but we certainly can have a plan in place to help ourselves get through it.

What is Good for the Goose is Not Good for the Gander

What a difference a weekend makes. This is starting to become a familiar refrain in the financial market milieu - on Friday a bank or major financial institution is on the verge of collapse, then the  government decides over the weekend whether they are "too big to fail," and lo and behold, on Monday, the biggest bailout you've ever seen is rolled out with surety - the taxpayer is once again convinced of the "rightness" of the bailout and the stockmarket rallies on the news as the government goes on the hook again for the "good of the economy." 

There I was lamenting on Friday over the death of my bank and now it has been super-revived by the government, I should have known that it wouldn't be allowed to fail. As I was caught up in the rain dance of the Automakers, praying for their own shower of cash, I was starting to be lulled by the actual possibility that the government spigot was slowing to a trickle. Oops!  

When major (and well-respected) economists jump into the fray to declare why the major financial institutions cannot fail and why the Automakers should be allowed to fail and why one or the other outcome is good, better or best for the ailing economy...you start to wonder what parsing words are left to convince the conspiracy theorists that Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, Mr. $500,000,000,000 golden parachute Wall Street investment banker, is simply not helping his friends. You do start to wonder whether the claims that the "rich" are simply carrying out the biggest heist in the history of the United States, having found the most effective umbrella, TARP, no less, (what are the odds?) to transfer taxpayer dollars into their coffers. All of this unfolding under the gleeful and ever watchful eye of the outgoing President who, many say, is simply completing his final, grand, mission.

As the Citi Sleeps

As I watch my bank die, I ponder all of the consequences of it as I have now grown accustomed to its stellar online services and being a beneficiary of its free services. I for one am not sure how I will survive without my free interbank transfers which I use on a regular basis. I have had accounts at many banks over the years, but no one has had as great a website as Citi. In addition, they have long combined all accounts, whether asset or liability, banking, brokerage, credit cards and savings, to figure your total worth to them which in turn determined your monthly checking account fees. Both my husband and I came into our marriage with varying forms of Citi accounts that once combined practically guaranteed that, for the most part, we would enjoy free checking, a nice benefit for us poor folks who would never qualify otherwise since we would never have the rather hefty account minimums required. 

Over the years we have been fortunate to save quite a bit in fees. Odd things would happen though, if we paid down our credit card, this would reduce our stake dipping us into to monthly fee territory or when we moved our brokerage account to a discount online broker dipping us into monthly fee territory again. Then one day, our mortgage having been sold multiple times eventually landed at Citi. At first I was not excited to have that much exposure to Citi after they had gone through a rather irksome period a while back when they seemed to snub their noses at their less than wealthy account-holders. I even cancelled my citicard because they p'd me off. But I was back on track when it came to light that by merely linking our mortgage account to our checking account, the amount of our worth to Citi would guarantee free checking for life so I changed my tune pretty quickly though having to see the entire mortgage amount staring me in the face everytime I log on sometimes is a little disconcerting. 

Now the powerhouse Citigroup stock is less than $5 and they are thinking about selling themselves. No amount of Saudi investment and countless billions in bailout funds has been able to help them stave off the devastation caused by that 3-word financial instrument that keeps rearing its ugly head; credit swap derivatives. They will be the bane of our existence because they are difficult to understand and impossible to comprehend. And ironically, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's decision to jettison the fundamental intent of the TARP bailout by not purchasing those toxic assets from banks dealt another decisive blow to the Citi umbrella. 

What will happen if they choose to sell themselves in part by spinning off vital assets like the credit card business or the mortgage business? What will happen if they choose to sell themselves in whole? Whatever happens, the world will change for me, spinning off any assets will reduce by stakehold, my worth to Citi or if Citi sells itself and ceases to exist, I will have a new bankmaster. In any event, I will most likely lose my free checking privileges. 

Boy, it can be very easy to start protecting the monster when it serves your purposes. If I was on the other end of the stick, I would surely be spouting off about how they deserved their fate in varying degrees of negative yada, nay-yada. But now as I watch my bank fail, I realize that they have somehow been good to me and I will be sad to see them go especially when I have to start paying those monthly fees again.

Observations On Another Down Day

The stock market woke up today, fresh from another delusional rallying stupor, looked around and noticed that the economy is bad and tanked over 400 points...again. It keeps sinking when it recognizes reality and rallying for no other reason than it is tired of sinking. Citigroup stock is at $6.45, GM at $2.79, Ford at $1.26 and so on; what more indication do we need to convince ourselves that things are not so good? 

More companies are on the brink of requesting bailouts and those who already got them still whine for more. So we ask our Treasury Secretary, where did all the money go? and he decides not to tell us. The only place where that $350,000,000,000 infusion of bailout dollars trickled down into is the pockets of the CEOs, upper management and shareholders in the form of dividends. This is what happens when all of these financial corporations get capital infusions in return for shares - business as usual. Except this time around they are not lending us any money at all. Who are the fools as we watch the economic disaster continue to roll out its red carpet before us while our hard-earned tax dollars wind up in the hands of the connected few? 

All we see are so many stores going out of business and though we are initially shocked by the revelations, we consumers begin circling like hawks. We look around and scoff at the huge beckoning signs, "up to 30% off original prices," "nothing held back," and the ubiquitous "everything must go," as we turn our noses up at the paltry bargains, most of which are priced only 10-20% off. We mutter to ourselves and to our fellow shoppers that the bargains are not so good, one shopper asked me "where's all the stuff for 30% that they promised? For a nation of shoppers who have been handed coupons for the last few years regularly giving us 20-30-40% off the item of our choice and enticed by the seemingly endless clearance sales offering 40-50-60% off, we are not so moved by a liquidation sale where prices revert back to original prices with a puny amount off. We shoppers have all been trained to seek better bargains. We all want to buy something but we are afraid to spend too much.

The only thing I've learned about spending lately is the opposite of the lessons I have been adhering to: be prudent and wise, save for a rainy day, don't spend what you can't afford and do what you can to suspend instant gratification. I am not so sure anymore because all the money I scrimped to save is gone and right now I don't have much money to purchase what I really need. Only the connected few have it the best, when times are good they spend and when times are bad they still spend. Case in point, witness the auto executives flying in on their private jets to beg Congress for our money.

Bankruptcy May Be a Better Deal for Automakers

A serious message for the Unions is coming; the Corporate trough is going to run dry and hopefully they will pay heed before the public trough does too. One of the big 3 automakers is going down, with or without government funds, stranding many Union employees and pensioners. Bankruptcy is coming to one of the big three; the writing is on the wall so why not stop the bleeding and do it now. Ch. 11 is now an accepted form of business restructuring and allows a company to work its way out with dignity than the current embarrasment of begging that we are witnessing before Congress. 

No doubt this will be a bad situation but it is always better to have that operation sooner than later if you want to survive. Begging for a government bailout only delays the inevitable; when a company is burning $5,000,000,000 a month, they shouldn't be saved no matter how revered they are. It will be much cheaper for the taxpayer to help those workers and pensioners who are stranded by a bankruptcy filing than to fear the filing and throw good money after bad. The workers will be given unemployment and other government compensation, benefits will be turned over to the Pension Benefits Guaranty Fund and this one of the three (most-likely GM) will be forced to revamp and retool the company. 

Most importantly, the company will be able to re-negotiate debt and employment contracts and shed its pension and healthcare obligations and most of all change its dinosaur management structure. This company will then emerge leaner and meaner and on par to seriously compete with foreign carmakers who are not crippled by legacy costs and who can manuever through this economic downturn because they are already on the road to the cars of the future. In fact, Congress approved $25,000,000,000 in September to fund energy-efficient vehicle research and manufacturing. So the first car company to choose Ch. 11 and restructure will have access to plenty of development cash to get going. 

Simultaneously, the Unions will get the message loud and clear, the playing field has to be leveled; any identifiable reasons for Union members to be overly compensated and overly benefitted more than any other American worker have long since evaporated. They have managed to hang on and bleed their hosts dry but they need to adapt to survive just like everybody else. They are stronger and more organized but if their host runs out of money, everyone will lose. If they are willing to renegotiate their contracts to be more in line with the type of environment in which most of us work and contribute more to their healthcare and retirement plans in particular then their host and themselves may survive. 

All the Unions have to stand up and come into the 21st century where most of us have been toiling for a decade. There is no such thing as a free lunch. Alan Greenspan stated this fall that he was surprised at the meltdown; he didn't see it coming because he believed in the ability of markets to self-regulate; companies would always protect their shareholders by delivering real profits and accountability. Unfortunately when the greedy get going; there is a stampede. Everyone has to reign in excess including the Unions. 

The State of New York

Probably the most disturbing statistic I read about this weekend is the extent to which New York State depends on Wall Street. Apparently, 20% of state revenue is garnered from the taxes on bonuses paid to investment bankers and capital gains (source: Newsday). Now I knew it was a significant amount but 1/5 of the budget is alot. New York State has a budget of $120,000,000,000 a year. Of course with the decimation of most of the major financial firms continuing to escalate, Citigroup announced layoffs of 50,000 workers today, it is not hard to predict that this stream of revenue will be significantly reduced. 50% is the amount currently anticipated or approximately $12,000,000,000 less. The State is on track to have a $1,500,000,000 deficit this year and a $12,500,000,000 deficit next year.

This past July, Governor Patterson sounded the early alarm and hauled the Legislature in to address an additional $600,000,000 in budget cuts to cover the then-anticipated budget shortfall for this year and at the time projected a deficit of nearly $6,000,000,000 for next year. As we can see, these numbers have more than doubled since July so tomorrow the Legislature is being hauled back in again to address the spiraling budget deficit. From the top - corporations and governments - to the bottom - individuals, we are all saddled with decreasing income/revenue and higher debt. 

Unfortunately, instead of trying to come up with solutions, the advance notice is of Legislators bickering about programs that they do not want to touch, funds for education, healthcare, adminstration, pensions and themselves. Yes, it will be difficult to cut funds for all of these programs, New York spends nearly half of its budget, $59,000,000,000 for public health care costs, Medicare, Medicaid and Child Health Plus, alone. 

These funds represent the neediest cases but for all of those people who are losing their jobs, the projection is over 160,000 jobs across the state this year, the prospect of a majority of those persons paying into COBRA; extending their employer-based healthcare beyond a layoff is slim. Cobra costs are daunting. I have done it. It cost us $1200 a month to COBRA our healthcare costs a few years ago when we decided to go into business for ourselves. Most people will not be able to afford COBRA so that will be more people on the public health rolls. How do you cut the budget here? The other major area is education. None of the Legislators want to cut those funds either; New York State funding helps to keep my school taxes at an unrespectable $7,000 a year. Long Island school taxes are legendary, most of us are hanging by a thread, we couldn't survive a hike in taxes if the state cuts aid. 

So if not, health and education, then where? You have try to cut people but NY State is a union state. The teachers union is 600,000 strong then there is the Civil Service union with 300,000 members and police and transit and service employees and healthcare employees adding tens of thousands more; all the heavy-hitters with generous pensions, healthcare benefits and salary to boot. All of the Legislators owe some allegiance to one or the other of these unions so who will have the balls to cut them? Look, the Congress is arguing over saving GM for precisely the same reason; huge legacy costs will probably crimp its ability to become self-sustaining even if it does come up with the car of the future.

There is no good solution to the state's budget crisis but someone has to pay because there is no more money; most economists have now agreed that we will suffer a deep and protracted recession. So far Governor Patterson has been effective in keeping everything on the table. Instead of bellyaching and intractability, our Legislators should attempt to come up with some budget-reducing ideas that they could swallow; like it or not, we all have to do it.

We Can Make Better Choices

It seems that just when the economic news cannot get any worse and the stock market continues its daily dive, the Dow does an about face; down nearly 400 points, it closed up 550 points today. I kept wondering what the good news was since there has been nothing but a constant barrage of articles detailing how most of America's once solid blue chip companies are all coming apart at their financial seams; crumbling right before our very eyes. Name any company you know and the odds are it is suffering and either laying people off to stay afloat or begging the government for money. Even the U.S. Postal service plans to layoff 40,000 workers, the first layoffs in the entire history of the Post Office.

As jobless claims start to hit old records, it is clear that they soon will set new records. In these tough times, Americans have little money to spend and the only companies that seem to be faring well are McDonald's and Walmart; people are eating health-busting cheap food and are shopping for quality-busting cheap products. We eat, expand, then squeeze ourselves into our Walmart-perfect stretch pants. The implications to our health and the health-care system is a whole other story but at least we can go back to Walmart for their discount flat-rate prescription drugs.

It is like that commercial with the ubiquitous 'as seen on TV guy' selling us on that new glue-like solution to easily mend our clothing and other textiles and that the product is so fantastic, we can actually use it to mend our parachutes (cut to visual of person parachuting out of a plane); are we really too lazy to sit down and mend our parachutes the old-fashioned way (via needle and thread or sewing machine) that we would risk our lives on a $20 bottle of glue? Rice and beans are cheap food too; we can make better choices.

And this is really what it comes down to in the end; we have to stop being lazy and make better choices, about our health, our finances, our lives, our outlook and we have to get our butts out there and do something about it. The next few years are not going to be pretty - the landscape is changing quickly. Some of us will do better than others, those who do, be grateful; those who don't, try harder; and those who can't, thank the Democrats.

Hank Paulson Has Gone "Rogue"

This week, the revelations about Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson changing tax rules and refusing to divulge the recipients of the Congressional bailout funds began to raise eyebrows now that the election is over and we have time to pay attention. Well, today we have our answer.

Secretary Paulson appeared before Congress today stating that he decided not to use the funds for what they were originally intended, to buy up troubled mortgage assets and, in fact, he had decided it was a better idea to inject capital into banks instead in return for preferred stock. Essentially he has spent and will continue to spend the $700,000,000,000 bailout funds in any way that he sees fit. Folks, he has gone "rogue."

Actually, capital investment in banks may be a better investment for us taxpayers in the long run than buying up toxic bank assets but shouldn't he have informed Congress first? He does not have the authority to use Congressional funds for any other purpose than Congress intended or does he?

Originally Paulson appeared before Congress with a 3 page ransom note requesting the money with no strings and even though cooler heads prevailed within the maelstrom and protections were written in on behalf of the taxpayer, the bailout bill was stuffed with so much pork so if Congress got theirs, I guess, Mr. Paulson would get his.

He is only back before Congress because they have to vote on giving him the additional $350,000,000,000 because they only released half of the funds to begin with. He has proposed a new plan for the remaining funds; to buy up other debt securities mainly credit card and auto loan debt that were packaged and sold to investors in the same way as mortgage loans. This also may not be a bad idea but are we sure he will even do what he says since he hasn't so far?

Mr King of the Universe will do whatever he wants with our taxpayer dollars and Congress will allow it. The Congress doesn't know who to give the money to either; everybody wants a bailout. American Express asked for $3,500,000,000 today. AIG already got theirs and then some. GM has been begging for $25,000.000.000 for a week. Personally I don't think AIG should get any more and GM's Union-contracted labor costs are too high and will drain the company regardless. But it is too late, the animals are out of the barn and nobody knows who to save first, the cows, the pigs, the goats or the chickens. So it will wind up as Barney Frank says, that the funds will be given out until they run out.

The Bernanke-Paulson Coincidenza

What do the Chairman of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Secretary really have up their sleeves. The slow trickle of truth unfolds. The Federal Reserve waived the rules today to allow American Express to become a bank so that they can have easy access to Federal Reserve funds whenever they want to. Goldman Sachs became a bank. Morgan Stanley became a bankl We really didn't ask why because Bernanke and Paulson have convinced us that it had to be so; we had to save our financial institutions.

In addition, Treasury Secretary Paulson single-handedly changed tax law section 382 allowing companies to assume the debt of acquisitions thus off-setting their gains and significantly reducing their taxes. This loophole was closed in 1986 by Congress precisely to prevent companies from misusing this statute to circumvent their tax liability. Perhaps the treasury saw the benefit of giving good companies incentive to buy up losing companies but they don't have the authority to change tax law. Wells Fargo used this statute the very day it was unhinged to snap up Wachovia out of Citibank's grip successfully reducing its tax liability by $25,000,000,000.

Amidst off this, Paulson and Bernanke came begging congress for a $700,000,000,000 bailout package to rescue our financial institutions. Basically this gave them a multi-trillion dollar pot of funds to dole out to whomever they want to and now they don't want to give us all of the details for any of it. These Kings of the Universe have plundered the taxpayer, plundered the Federal Reserve and plundered the Treasury with virtually no oversight.

The two highest financial institutions in America have been hijacked by Bernanke and Paulson for in the process of saving our financial institutions, they have undone all of their own regulations. This can't be any accident. This doesn't look good.

How much more are we taxpayer's going to give to the cause?

Well, Obama has seen his office and Mrs. O has seen her house. I must admit that every time I hear the phrase "President-elect Barack Obama" or just plain "President Barack Obama" or "President Obama", a warm tingling runs through me, I still want to jump for joy, I am still so excited...and as we soak up every detail of the transition like our lives depend on it; they do to a certain extent.

Now that the greatest reality show on earth is over and to make matters better, the best person won, the grim reality of the economy takes center stage once again. Last November when the fundamentals started to show deep cracks, there was hope that things would turn around this year, maybe, somehow, but the truth is the economy just keeps getting worse and to impress upon ourselves the sheer magnitude of this downward spiral it is literally sucking the taxpayer's $2,000,000,000,000 investment into the vortex. An investment for which we have no accountability whatsoever and where the bankers and financiers are still getting their trophy bonuses.

Lest we forget the most openly self-gratuitous bunch, AIG executives, spending close to $500,000 at a true 5 star resort (I also went to this resort courtesy of another pre-Chapter 11 company 4 months before it went bust during the 2001 tech bubble) after getting their first round of $85,000,000,000 worth of taxpayer funds. Well wriggle your nose like Samantha, that amount is up to, ta-da $150,000,000,000.

If AIG pulls themselves out of this one then I am a monkey's uncle since we, the taxpayer, have not seen any accounting. So what is the total amount of insured credit swap derivatives we are holding? Ahem, we are the majority share-holder, are we not, especially since the original deal has been repealed and replaced with Warren Buffett-like favorable terms where we get our preferred shares this time around. The truth is the total is too monumental and AIG is wishing; hoping to hang on for another year until things turn around in 2010. Well, join the club, so is GM and everybody else. How much more are we taxpayer's going to give to the cause?

President FDR Obama is expected to do some serious doling; the part that the Republicans fear. Well, now that the Republicans have spent us into bankruptcy, the Democrats will have to practice restraint now or else they are the bad people. Already we have saddled our new President with so much hope that we may have already made his task too great. Can one man save the economy? That question will be answered in season two of the greatest show. Thank goodness for the show.

The Change: President Now

As the realization of the change sinks in we constantly mull the significance in our minds. What does this mean for all minority peoples, their children and themselves, their future, their fortune, their limitless opportunity, now sanctioned, stamped and guaranteed.

Now that the dust has settled, we can survey the landscape and it doesn't look good at all; more layoffs, more economic unrest and depressionary figures that have not been seen for decades. The Dow slides another day not in response to the election as fools may claim but because it has been doing it all year. Granted, excitement about the election underscored a rally on Tuesday but the fundamentals are still bad and we now have no election distraction.

All of this is impressed upon the President-elect has he moves to swiftly elect his aides, staff members and cabinet to assure and calm America that he is still on the boat. Even though his inauguration is over two months away, America really wants him to be President now. Even George W. and Laura want the Obamas to come to DC now; George says "this is your office" and Laura says "this is your house." They wish they could say, "take it tomorrow."

The two plus months to inauguration used to be a rest; the President-elect disappeared for a while, chose his staff and re-appeared to take his oath on the Qur'an, fear not mongers, the bible and off he went to save the world. We must remember that FDR in the same situation had until March before he was inaugurated while Hoover (Bush) presided over continued economic devastation. FDR took the politically advantageous course, he stayed silent, did not show his hand and swooped in to be the savior of America. Obama will have a Press Conference tomorrow so it is clear he will not be driving himself out of the hotel in his gold Toyota Sequoia on his way to Disney Land. Obama, under the tutelage of John Podesta, former head of Bill Clinton's transition team, will field the middle, since Podesta, having learned from his previous over-conceived expediency-busting rollout will push to appease the impatient Americans with worthy choices sooner than later.

Whatever the case the post-election frivolity need not consume me, I now have more time to exist as a human, to accept free tickets to the Northport Theatre courtesy of the Smithown Chamber of Commerce. I had a lovely evening, the first date I have had with my husband in years (we always take the kids) and we could revel in the fact that as minorities we ruled the world, silly though it may be, we were the only ones. We have been in this situation a hundred times before but this time we truly belonged as the suburban educated people that we are unencumbered by race and ethnicity.

I'm not sure if this observation is even necessary because the show was flawless, the production was classy and the performances were 100%. We would have had a ball, regardless.

Faith Restored in America

The outpouring of emotion was so intense: tears streamed down faces in glory, hope, admiration and elation as we witnessed a giant step for humankind. Jessie cried, Oprah cried and even Colin choked up as we celebrated and breathed our collective sigh of relief that Obama's 21 month Presidential campaign ended in such a decisive victory that there was not one shred of doubt to upend. We can ride high on the sheer magnitude of Obama's victory. Faith has been restored in America evidenced by the whole world cheering with us; people of all faiths, nationalities and races dancing in the streets in cities and towns across America and the world.

240,000 people in Chicago turn out for Obama's victory speech.

An electoral margin of 2 to 1 over McCain.

52% of the popular vote.

Many Americans were inspired to vote for the 1st time in their lives.

American children were energized and engaged in the political process.

McCain's speech was gracious and welcoming.

Obama's speech was sobering and commanding.

Sarah Palin was unceremoniously dismissed.

And the stock market tanked again today reminding us that there is so much work to be done.

"They Said This Day Would Never Come"

Its 9:37 Eastern Time and I'm calling it. President Barack Obama. Hallelujah. The only fitting words I can think of are the opening paragraphs of his victory speech in Iowa, Jan 3, 2008.

"You know, they said this day would never come.

They said our sights were set too high. They said this country was too divided, too disillusioned to ever come together around a common purpose.But on this January night, at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn't do.

You have done what the state of New Hampshire can do in five days. You have done what America can do in this new year, 2008.

In lines that stretched around schools and churches, in small towns and in big cities, you came together as Democrats, Republicans and independents, to stand up and say that we are one nation. We are one people. And our time for change has come.

You said the time has come to move beyond the bitterness and pettiness and anger that's consumed Washington.

To end the political strategy that's been all about division, and instead make it about addition. To build a coalition for change that stretches through red states and blue states.

Because that's how we'll win in November, and that's how we'll finally meet the challenges that we face as a nation."

THANK YOU AMERICA!

His Story

My fingers are crossed, my toes are crossed, my nerves are crossed...I'm not sure I can put together a cohesive sentence. This is the eve of a real opportunity for Americans to step forward into a better era and a better history. Tomorrow, history will be made regardless of which party wins this election. This is the only instance where Barack Obama and Sarah Palin can be mentioned together in the same light; he may become the first black President, she may become the first female Vice President.

It is pretty clear Barack Obama should win this historic round. Barack Obama has run a masterful campaign and he has transcended the realm of mere candidacy to become the leader of a movement; a movement that will shake America out of its hallowed racial barriers towards an America that is inclusive of all and a positive beacon for the rest of the world. As Obama states often, the road will not be easy even if he is chosen to lead, for the America that he deserves to be handed tomorrow will be a mere shadow of its former self, hollowed out by a self-serving, arrogant leadership that has bled it dry of whatever virtue it had left.

To my dear friends, who have walked the walk, talked the talk, and pounded the streets to gather support for Obama; who sacrificed their time and energy to promote victory for the rest of us, may your tireless efforts be rewarded tomorrow and may we all share in the glory.

John McCain Campaign an Embarassment to Republican Party

Sarah Palin has become a caricature and unfortunately has taken John McCain with her. Now he is standing at the podium calling out for "Joe the Plumber," who apparently didn't show up and Fox News is interviewing "Tito the Builder," Sarah Palin's new sidekick. To make matters worse, Sarah Palin has "gone rogue" for even attempting to say a few words of her own, and all of this is wrapped up in a bubble of negativity, race-baiting, and mixed messages. How did John McCain stoop so low?

Throughout all of this, Barack Obama has run a tight campaign, raised a gazillion dollars, adhered to an inspiring message of change, appeared Presidential and has appeared completely on message every-time, is thoughtful and engaging, has rally's filled with cheers while McCain's have been filled with boos, has inspired many Americans to vote and be engaged in the political process for the first time and yet there are still so many Americans who say they are still undecided. How in a thinking brain can Americans look at the evidence and still consider John McCain and the Republican party worthy contenders for the Presidency?

And, I haven't even mentioned the economic meltdown that should be sweetening Obama's pot as far as Americans are concerned. Yet, these people will apparently vote themselves out of economic existence because they are so ignorant that they can't cross the great racial divide to vote for the best Presidential candidate of any race that America has had in a long time; an intelligent contender who actually has a good chance of leading us out of this mess. It is virtually impossible for anyone in the thinking set to comprehend how Americans can be so ignorant after all of this time that they can watch the talking heads on Fox News laugh and mock any guest with even a remote sense of intelligence.

Americans are out there standing up today shouting out at the McCain/Palin rally "Obama is a muslim, Obama is a terrorist" and building up so much antagonism that skinheads were arrested this week for attempting to plan to assassinate Obama. The McCain campaign is stoking this fear. Why would the Republican Party let itself be hijacked by anti-intellectual, pro-America, pro-white, pro-evangelist faction to the point where they are considering Sarah Palin for an important leadership role going forward? What will happen to the idea-based conservatives like Peggy Noonan, David Frum, Chris Buckley, David Brooks and others who believe in the Reagan's Republican party of small government, low taxes and free-market capitalism?

Hopefully they will have the next 4 years to think about it.

Obamercial is Flawless

On the eve of Obama's 30 minute prime-time infomercial, the critics were weighing in on this unprecedented occasion, well I keep hearing that Ross Perot did one but I must admit I don't remember it and I haven't looked it up, that it could wind up being a foot in mouth, over-confident, over-the top propaganda message, that it may backfire, that it was too much of a risk at this late stage, or the sheer cost of it is absurd, why is Fox delaying the world series for it, and that Obama is unfairly spending ill-gotten gains because he reneged on his pledge to accept public financing and the accompanying fund-raising cap even though at the time they were skeptical of his ability to raise cash on the open market. Even I was starting to dread the decision as too risky.

Well nervous nellies, it was flawless! Every lingering doubt, every policy point and all fears were put to rest as Obama delivered his message as a narrative through the eyes of middle class, swing-state based Americasn in a well-produced, engaging 30 minutes that was inspiring. How dare he make us hard-hearted folks feel hope for America? Well, if you caught John McCain on Larry King after the broadcast that was certainly his tone, whining, complaining and pushing his negative Obama message missing the opportunity once again to brush off Obama and tell the captive American audience why they should vote for him.

You watch one half hour of feel-good TV, followed by 12 minutes of grumpy old guy and you start to wonder why he still has statistically significant support. Either it is a testament to John McCain's credentials as a formidable candidate that he can run a disastrously disjointed, negative campaign, even choosing a woefully inadequate running mate and still be within a few digits in the polls or Obama is a black man.

Fine Time for a Rally: Dow jumps 889 points

This is all I heard or read today right off the top of my head: GM is begging the government for money to buy Chrysler, Consumer Confidence is at 38, the lowest it has been on record since the index began in 1967, the Case-Shiller Index which measures median housing prices in the top 20 U.S. cities is down another 16.5%, Whirlpool has joined the daily layoff brigade announcing its own 10% reduction and a bleak outlook along with most other retail for 2009, average consumer debt is now $17,000 per household, AIG is asking for still more money after already receiving $127,500,000,000, the Governor of NY revised this year's deficit upward to nearly $2,000,000,000 and next year's deficit at $12,000,000,000 and projected NY State job loss of 160,000, recession begets depression, its going to get worse before it gets better, the whole world is on the verge of a global recession, the Federal Reserve is having 2 days of meetings to decide how much more to cut the federal funds rate as if there is any more to cut and how will it help at this point since all the major financial institutions and corporations are getting bailed out anyhow, yet somehow, the Dow rallied on this expected rate cut to the tune of 889 points.

Double take. I must have taken a different boat to work today. The economic fundamentals couldn't be weaker; fine time for a rally.

Pre-Election Fatigue

Since I started my job, the television sets in the break-rooms have all been tuned to CNN, all day, every day, without a break. I wonder if someone will turn the channel, maybe, after the election. I am not sure if this is the custom or borne of necessity; satisfying the news-addicted selves that many of us have become. Nevertheless, every time you get water, coffee, prepare your breakfast and/or lunch, there is one of them talking, Obama, McCain, Palin and sometimes Biden; his rallies get the least coverage.

When I come home, we have the news on, with a little more flexibility in that we flip through all the news channels, listening to all the pontification on the election as if it is a sporting event; the play by play with all of the obvious commentary and conclusions batted about with authority. The all-knowing pundits making fools of themselves especially those sincerely defending the erratic actions of the McCain/Palin campaign; so dark, so extreme the comedy. But now, I have to say, I am absolutely sick of it!

Today, as I was in the kitchen and Obama was on, a co-worker commented that he was just as "dirty as the rest of them," and he was not saying anything new; it was the same old yadda yadda that he's been hearing for weeks, no months, probably a year at least. Before I go on I must interject, why do citizens expect impeccable behavior from politicians when the nature of the beast dictates that you have to get your hands dirty to succeed? It is a necessary evil if you want to survive; serving the people sometimes means subverting the people in order to continue to serve the people.

No politician can be pristine yet the expectation of some kind of morale facade is deeply rooted in the election process. And, for the duration of said election cycle, the politicians sling mud at each other while we all pat ourselves on the back resplendent in our candidate's ability to take a moral highground just a little higher than the opponent's. Satisfactory. Job well done. And if not, what he or she should or should not have said with the same jawboning of an academic exercise. Filler. Commercial. Filler. Flip the Channel.

Anyhow, I digress. I deftly steered my co-worker to some non-partisan websites and explained that one can separate the stump from the message and when you dig deep into the message you get a different picture of the candidates that will clarify all the sound-bites. After he conceded that I was right about Obama, he happily went on and I happily scored another one for the cause. But, I couldn't help that he was right about the elections season overload. I am starting to turn away from all the noise; not just me, many of us are now suffering from pre-election fatigue, all wanting the election to be over, to be done with the incessant partisan rant and to be happy that we have elected a better President than what we now.

So tonight, I found TiVo again and tried to reclaim some connection to the fall TV season. What, 6 episodes behind on Mad Men? I've got a lot of catching up to do.

Confessions of a Weary Blogger

Today, for the first time since I began writing this blog back in June, I decided I should take the day off. The main reason is the addition of a full time job. When I added a full-time job to my schedule, I added a full-time job to the full-time job that I already had; mother of 2 and CFO of 2 LLCs and CEO/CFO of the household. Yet through it all I have adhered to the schedule that I initially set when I started this blog.

I didn't want to be a blogger who wrote a few times willy nilly until the blog trailed off into nothingness and I didn't want to be a blogger posting several times a day every day. To strike a balance that I could reasonably keep, I decided on the schedule of a single post M-F reserving the weekends for family demands which, if you have one, are plentiful. It has been working all of this time until today when I realized that I probably cannot keep up this schedule for too much longer if I ever plan to get any sleep.

Currently I begin writing sometime after 10pm with the goal of getting to bed by midnight which I have so far failed to achieve; usually it is closer to 1am. At the 10pm hour, everyone is in bed, the house is quiet and I can separate and find the time to think. Even if I wasn't writing I would be thinking for I have always been a bit of a night owl. Nevertheless, the reality is that I have to be alert and primed for my job every day all day if I plan to keep it.

Every person's job in the private sector requires pristine dedication and overt proof of indispensability; a tough order for any job holder but a requirement in today's economy. It is impossible for me to be comfortable and take my job for granted having narrowly survived a layoff this week while witnessing the news of thousands more being downsized from major corporations, the likes of Chrysler, Goldman, Xerox and Merck. The employment outlook is grim for the upcoming year and to lose one's job in this economy is a looming prospect; any day, any hour, any time into a world of shrinking opportunity.

Therefore, in the interest of preserving my job and by extension preserving some sanity, I will be reducing my output to M-Th. I think it will be fine.

The Politics of Race

The Meltdown of the McCain/Palin campaign over the last few days is making me start to feel bad for John McCain. After all, he has sacrificed his reputation for this campaign though, thank goodness, America will forget in due time. Two things were going to happen when John McCain selected Sarah Palin as his running mate; she was going to energize the Republican conservative base and perhaps skim off former Hillary supporters who, in their disappointment appeared to reject Barack Obama out of hand or she would personify exactly what she was thought to be at the time, a neophyte lacking the credentials to be Vice President.

It seems that the latter has come to pass and though we are not shocked, we are still surprised to see it unfold before us. And, though she was chosen to energize the base, none of us could have imagined the devisiveness that has come to characterize her campaign and by extension, John McCain's. From her mouth has emanated a charged vocabulary with an undercurrent no doubt influenced by her virtual isolation in Alaska.

On the eve of the possible of election of a 1/2 black man as President, America reveals its racial divisions once again for all the world to witness. This is supposed to be the greatest country in the world yet the Republican candidates for Presidency stoke an unspoken but understood prejudice that is seized upon with gusto and widespread support. This is kind of frightening. It reminds me of the division that we had in the democratic primaries where Hilary had to deliver her people to Obama much to the distress of herself and her supporters - an open wound fueled by the competitive division between a white woman and a black man both vying to become the historical first President of their kind. In time, Democrats came around to support the greater good, a Democrat for President.

Now with the increasingly hostile and corrosive campaign that Palin spews and McCain condones, we are left with people who have a more insidious separation, a racial divide rooted in hundreds of years of history that was only equalized by law less than 50 years ago. The very same separation that may cost Obama the election if Americans fail to look beyond race once they hit the voting booth; proving that the Bradley effect is no myth, but reality.

News Addicts: Post Partisanism & Neo-Socialism

This has been the most engaging and engrossing news cycle to the point where many of us are becoming news addicts; major media including the New York Times are profiling self proclaimed news addicts, to the detriment of the new fall television season. The news has become the ultimate reality show, providing all the scintillating drama we need complete with the "so you want to be the next vice president," contestant resoundingly unqualified but resplendent in her $150,000 wardrobe. Even material from fake news comedy and comedy sketch shows is news on the mainstream news networks; the shows that take the news and riff on the news create incredibly hilarious segments that become news in themselves. Yep.

Americans are simultaneously voting for their American Idol and their next President. When times are bad, Americans look to escape reality, in the 1930's they went to the movies, to be swept away from reality, to root for the underdog, the Presidential campaign is entertainment. But, at the same time, Americans need a President who has the potential to lead them out of the misery. We are conflicted enough to be almost fooled again by the same tactics that re-elected George Bush but at the same time we recognize the deception and we want to rise above it this time around.

However, the news is so biased that all it takes is a click to find the right news that tells you what you want to hear: "We report. We decide. You listen. You believe." Somewhere in all of this many have become news addicts because of the need for actual information; we are in a recession but no news organization wants to declare it, everyday is like groundhog day on wallstreet where the market reacts to the news of the day and/or moment as if the economic realities of yesterday were forgotten. Never in so long can I remember a time where we were inundated with facts; financial facts of a complexity that we suddenly have to comprehend as taxpayers; a historic democratic primary leading to a potential historic first for the Presidency and a downright raiding of the public trust to the tune of $2,000,000,000,000.

As the Republicans trump out their usual party platform of conservative values, small fiscally responsible government, low tax Americana, they are overseeing the largest nationalization of private enterprise in collective memory. Socialism, the evil political term of the week, has already been embedded in our progressive tax policies of subsidies, tax credits, social security and public health programs. It is the Republicans, not the oft-described liberal socially radical democrats who are presiding over this post capitalist neo-socialism. To encapsulate further irony, all of this was done in the name of saving our wealthy financial institutions to avoid an economic devastation of all society. How Odd!

This is why it is a troubling reality to watch the Sarah Palin supporters boo loudly at every mention of socialism because of the misconstrued notion that Barack Obama is a socialist for even suggesting that we spread the wealth around by repealing the Bush Tax cuts for those making over $250,000 a year. Politically incorrect is making a comeback and I'm adding my two cents: Do you really think the crowd booing at socialism even understands what it means or that they make more than $250,000 a year? Or do you really think that faced with an 'ism they are concluding the worst because neither they nor Palin understands the term; these the people survivng on welfare, food stamps, medicare, medicaid and other benefits of the public largesse. And for those of them who are working, that, in fact, 95% would benefit from the Obama tax cuts.

This is why we are still worrying; those of us who watch too much news. Polling is misleading and so we try to ascertain which way the wind is blowing.

Layoffs

There were layoffs at my job today; a 30% cut of my department. We were quivering in our boots. My company has seemingly solid financials but in order to stay competitive, maintain profitability and survive through the economic downturn, they have to be shrewd; conserve cash, trim unprofitable sectors, and reduce headcount.

As we struggled through each hour and minute waiting for the tap on the shoulder, there was an eerie quiet, we did not speak, we did not speculate and we did not work. I sat with a heavy heart and hollow gut even though I thought I was prepared. Since I was just hired, I am very aware that I am LIFO (last-in-first-out) especially in these economic times; there is no expectation of job security. I know I was fortunate to land the job in the first place but I still expected it to last a little longer than 5 weeks.

Nevertheless, no amount of expectation or preparation can reduce the emotional devastation of layoffs; the organizational ties that are suddenly and unexpectedly shattered. You immediately feel the loss of those who are let go as you try to assess your pecking order; you are on a rudderless ship, all the bosses are behind closed doors; your fate hanging in the balance.You find your thoughts turn to the realities of finding a job especially in a tight market until day's end and the firing stops and you have survived. Then you wonder whether or not you have witnessed the first round as you look around at the empty cubicles; will there be more? You pledge to tighten the reins and save even more emergency cash as you digest that the sad reality of this day could have been yours.

Benefits of Racial Doubt

The politics of race is back in the spotlight as America is poised to elect its first black President. The McCain/Palin supporters are being reminded of this on a daily basis as they are wooed on the pretense that they are more "pro-America" than Obama/Biden supporters, that Barack Obama's middle name, Hussein, has muslim/terrorist implications certainly heightened by his connection to Bill Ayers, former '60s radical protest bomber now conveniently recast as a domestic terrorist, and by their own rejection of Obama, simply because he is a black man.

General Colin Powell said it best this weekend when he crossed his party-line to endorse Senator Obama for President stating eloquently that the Republican party was narrowing in its scope, in that it was now tending to be more exclusive than inclusive. And, if in fact Obama was a muslim which he is not, what is so wrong with being American and muslim? Why should/would this be a limiting factor in the land of the free and the home of the brave?

Unfortunately for Obama, in a vast swath of the country, old prejudices die hard; ignorance and provincialism has rendered a large portion of the conservative, fundamentalist Christian population, unrepentingly racist. Gov. Sarah Palin has been out preaching to the choir, allowing them to draw the very conclusions that they are expected to draw to great affect. Sen. John McCain, having been subject to a racial mudslinging by George Bush and Co. during the 2000 Republican primaries, must be turning in his sleep as he struggles to rectify his campaign's cognitive dissonance; dependence on these "rural folk" for votes causing him to implicitly condone their racial outlook by omission of strong condemnation.

Democratic Sen. John Murtha stated a few days ago that his home base of western Pennsylvania is racist, basically a bunch of rednecks and he has implored them to look beyond race and listen to what Obama is saying. This has been the battle cry of many Obama supporters, including union leaders and the like in these traditionally working class (white) areas.

Disaffection with the Republican party together with the economic decline, housing bubble and Wall Street collapse has inadvertently propelled many rural Americans to rethink their racist underpinnings simply because the democratic nominee for President is telling them what they want to hear and just so happens to be a black man. What a turnaround! Black Americans aren't used to getting the benefit of the doubt.